IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v80y2022icp294-308.html

Fiscal policy choices of local governments in China: Land finance or local government debt?

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Yudan
  • Jia, Shanghui
  • Meng, Huan

Abstract

This study examines how fiscal incentives affect policy choices of local governments in China. We construct a difference-in-differences model using the 2014 Chinese central government policy of controlling the increase in construction land in metropolitan cities as an exogenous shock. The results reveal a substitution relationship between land sales revenue and local government debt, wherein local governments tended to expand debt when land revenue was reduced. Moreover, this decline affected local government debt’s maturity structure, as local governments faced higher short-term debt pressure and more quickly adjusted the interest rate maturity structure, which could trigger new debt risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Yudan & Jia, Shanghui & Meng, Huan, 2022. "Fiscal policy choices of local governments in China: Land finance or local government debt?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 294-308.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:294-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056022000909
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.070?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han, Li & Kung, James Kai-Sing, 2015. "Fiscal incentives and policy choices of local governments: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 89-104.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    3. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    4. Heyman, Fredrik & Sjoholm, Fredrik & Tingvall, Patrik Gustavsson, 2007. "Is there really a foreign ownership wage premium? Evidence from matched employer-employee data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 355-376, November.
    5. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang & Mr. Steven A Barnett, 2014. "Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China," IMF Working Papers 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2009. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
    8. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2013/243, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Peterson, George E. & Kaganova, Olga, 2010. "Integrating land financing into subnational fiscal management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5409, The World Bank.
    10. Juanfeng Zhang & Lele Li & Danxia Zhang & Jie Gu, 2021. "Seven super urban agglomerations, governments’ debt risk, and land leasing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2662-2679, December.
    11. Justin Yifu Lin & Zhiqiang Liu, 2000. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    12. Köppl–Turyna, Monika & Pitlik, Hans, 2018. "Do equalization payments affect subnational borrowing? Evidence from regression discontinuity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-108.
    13. Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2010. "Dynamic Commitment and the Soft Budget Constraint: An Empirical Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 154-179, August.
    14. Fermín Cabasés & Pedro Pascual & Jaime Vallés, 2007. "The effectiveness of institutional borrowing restrictions: Empirical evidence from Spanish municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 293-313, June.
    15. Jin, Hehui & Qian, Yingyi & Weingast, Barry R., 2005. "Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism, Chinese style," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1719-1742, September.
    16. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    17. Clingermayer, James C. & Dan Wood, B., 1995. "Disentangling Patterns of State Debt Financing," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 108-120, March.
    18. Teresa Garcia-Milà & Timothy J. Goodspeed & Therese J. McGuire, 2001. "Fiscal decentralization policies and sub-national government debt in evolving federations," Economics Working Papers 549, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2002.
    19. Rodden, Jonathan, 2003. "Reviving Leviathan: Fiscal Federalism and the Growth of Government," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 695-729, October.
    20. Foremny, Dirk, 2014. "Sub-national deficits in European countries: The impact of fiscal rules and tax autonomy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-110.
    21. Liu, Yong & Fan, Peilei & Yue, Wenze & Song, Yan, 2018. "Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: The case of Chongqing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 420-432.
    22. Weingast, Barry R., 2009. "Second generation fiscal federalism: The implications of fiscal incentives," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 279-293, May.
    23. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
    24. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Alexey Levkov, 2010. "Big Bad Banks? The Winners and Losers from Bank Deregulation in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1637-1667, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Zhang, Lu & Chen, Juejin & Wang, Yuan, 2024. "Appointing bankers as governors: Bureaucratic transfers and local government debt dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    3. Liu, Yu & Zhao, Peng & Zhao, Xiaoxue, 2026. "Housing booms and local capital misallocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    5. Wu, Fulong, 2022. "Land financialisation and the financing of urban development in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
    7. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    8. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Han Gao & Minming Lan & Jie Li & Tianhang Zhou, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and local government debt: Evidence from China," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(4), pages 1103-1141, November.
    10. Junxue Jia & Siying Ding & Yongzheng Liu, 2018. "Decentralization, Incentives, and Tax Enforcement," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1819, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    11. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Zixing Wang & Meirong Zhang, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Associated with Land Finance in China: A Perspective Based on the Urban–Rural Income Gap," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
    13. Yixin Chen & Bingyang Lyu & Guangrong Ma, 2024. "Revenue sharing, fiscal incentives, and economic growth: Evidence from China," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 149-183, February.
    14. Bao, Helen X.H. & Wang, Ziyou & Wu, Robert Liangqi, 2024. "Understanding local government debt financing of infrastructure projects in China: Evidence based on accounting data from local government financing vehicles," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Xueying & Zhang, Aoran & Wang, Yulin, 2021. "Fact or fiction: Implicit government guarantees in China’s corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    16. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
    17. Chen, Ziyang & Chen, Ting & Lin, Yatang & Wang, Jin, 2025. "Building tall, falling short: An empirical assessment of Chinese skyscrapers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. Mengkai Chen & Ting Chen & Debao Ruan & Xiaowei Wang, 2023. "Land Finance, Real Estate Market, and Local Government Debt Risk: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Han, Hongling & Mao, Yidan & Liu, Qiang, 2024. "The information externality of public firms’ employment in the municipal corporate bond market in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:294-308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.