IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/1653.html

Causal Returns to Education

Author

Listed:
  • Patrinos, Harry Anthony
  • Psacharopoulos, George

Abstract

Using 182 estimates from 140 studies in 55 countries, this paper compares ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the private returns to schooling. IV returns average 9.7 percent-38 percent higher than OLS-and exceed OLS in nearly 80 percent of cases, with the largest gaps in developing countries. These patterns align with theories of diminishing marginal returns, scarcity rents, and attenuation from measurement error. While IV methods mitigate bias, instrument validity and external validity concerns persist. Evidence consistently shows substantial causal returns, particularly for disadvantaged populations, underscoring the need for rigorous research.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Psacharopoulos, George, 2025. "Causal Returns to Education," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1653, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/324157/1/GLO-DP-1653.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Till von Wachter, 2008. "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 592-598, August.
    2. Clark, Gregory & Nielsen, Christian Alexander Abildgaard, 2024. "The Returns to Education: A Meta-study," CEPR Discussion Papers 18769, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September.
    4. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    6. Esther Duflo, 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 795-813, September.
    7. David Card, 1993. "Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling," Working Papers 696, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Orley Ashenfelter & Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek, 1999. "A Review of Estimates of the Schooling/Earnings Relationship, with Tests for Publication Bias," Working Papers 804, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Amory Gethin, 2025. "Distributional Growth Accounting: Education and the Reduction of Global Poverty, 1980–2019," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(4), pages 2571-2618.
    10. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2005. "Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 437-449, March.
    11. Trostel, Philip & Walker, Ian & Woolley, Paul, 2002. "Estimates of the economic return to schooling for 28 countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    13. repec:fth:prinin:317 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, October.
    15. Costas Meghir & Mårten Palme, 2005. "Educational Reform, Ability, and Family Background," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 414-424, March.
    16. Jan Tinbergen, 1974. "Substitution Of Graduate By Other Labour," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 217-226, January.
    17. repec:ucn:wpaper:10197/1101 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    19. repec:fth:prinin:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Manudeep Bhuller & Magne Mogstad & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2017. "Life-Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums, and Internal Rates of Return," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 993-1030.
    21. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    22. David Card, 1993. "Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling," Working Papers 696, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    23. Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2007. "The Impact of Length of the School Year on Student Performance and Earnings: Evidence From the German Short School Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1216-1242, October.
    24. Harry Patrinos & Chris Sakellariou, 2005. "Schooling and Labor Market Impacts of a Natural Policy Experiment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 19(4), pages 705-719, December.
    25. Xiaoshan Hu & Guanghua Wan & Congmin Zuo, 2025. "Education development and income inequality: evidence from China," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 23(4), pages 1411-1432, December.
    26. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 152-175, March.
    27. Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2016. "Estimating the return to schooling using the Mincer equation," World of Labour, LISER, pages 278-278, July.
    28. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2018. "Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 445-458, September.
    29. Franca, Maíra Penna & Machado, Danielle Carusi & Corseuil, Carlos Henrique, 2025. "Determinants of high returns and low rates of high school completion in Brazil," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    30. Ichino, Andrea & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1998. "The Long-Run Educational Cost of World War II: An Example of Local Average Treatment Effect Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1895, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Harmon, Colm & Hogan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2003. "Dispersion in the economic return to schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 205-214, April.
    32. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek & Ian Walker, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Microeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 115-156, April.
    33. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    34. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    35. Ashenfelter, Orley & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Estimates of the Economic Returns to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1157-1173, December.
    36. Soon, Jan-Jan & Lim, Hock-Eam, 2024. "Driver of returns to schooling: Education-related policies or family background?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1471, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    37. Clark, Damon, 2023. "School quality and the return to schooling in Britain: New evidence from a large-scale compulsory schooling reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    38. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
    39. Damon Clark & Paco Martorell, 2014. "The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(2), pages 282-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Helal, Al Mansor & Hiraki, Ryotaro & Patrinos, Harry, 2026. "Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods," IZA Discussion Papers 18523, IZA Network @ LISER.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balestra, Simone & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2017. "Heterogeneous returns to education over the wage distribution: Who profits the most?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 89-105.
    2. Ge, Suqin, 2013. "Estimating the returns to schooling: Implications from a dynamic discrete choice model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Ukaj MIC & Mustafa Topxhiu RAHMIJE, 2019. "The returns to investment in education: Some theoretical and empirical insights," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 193-203.
    4. Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Rivera-Olvera, Angelica, 2026. "Education and Earnings in Europe," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1800, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Nikolov, Plamen & Jimi, Nusrat & Chang, Jerray, 2020. "The Importance of Cognitive Domains and the Returns to Schooling in South Africa: Evidence from Two Labor Surveys," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xiaoxiao Li & Evan Totty, 2020. "Multidimensional skills and the returns to schooling: Evidence from an interactive fixed‐effects approach and a linked survey‐administrative data set," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 548-566, August.
    7. Stanislav Avdeev, 2020. "Zero Returns To Higher Education: Evidence From A Natural Experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 236/EC/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Assaad, Ragui & Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Dayıoğlu, Meltem & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2026. "Wage returns to human capital resulting from an extra year of primary school: Evidence from Egypt," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek, 2000. "The Returns to Education: A Review of Evidence, Issues and Deficiencies in the Literature," CEE Discussion Papers 0005, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    10. Helal, Al Mansor & Hiraki, Ryotaro & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2026. "Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1733, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Andersson, Roland & Nabavi Larijani, Pardis & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2013. "The impact of vocational education and training on income in Sweden," Working Paper Series 13/4, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    12. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek & Ian Walker, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Microeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 115-156, April.
    13. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xiaoxiao Li & Evan Totty, 2019. "Multidemsional Skills and Returns to Schooling: Evidence from an Interactive Fixed Effects Aproach and a Linked Survey-Administrative Dataset," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1316, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    14. Denis Maguain, 2007. "Les rendements de l'éducation en comparaison internationale," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 87-106.
    15. Sajjad Haider Bhatti & Muhammad Aslam & Jean Bourdon, 2018. "Market Returns to Education in Pakistan, Corrected for Endogeneity Bias," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 79-96, Jan-June.
    16. Justin Van Der Sluis & Mirjam Van Praag & Wim Vijverberg, 2008. "Education And Entrepreneurship Selection And Performance: A Review Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 795-841, December.
    17. Gaurab Aryal & Manudeep Bhuller & Fabian Lange, 2022. "Signaling and Employer Learning with Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1669-1702, May.
    18. Sajjad Haider Bhatti & Jean Bourdon & Muhammad Aslam, 2013. "Economic Returns to Education in France: OLS and Instrumental Variable Estimations," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 51-63, July-Dec.
    19. Teresa Barbieri & Vito Peragine & Michele Raitano, 2025. "The effect of education on earnings dynamics: evidence from Italy," SERIES 03-2025, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Oct 2025.
    20. Khan, Bilal Muhammad, 2019. "Education Occupation Mismatch in Developing countries," MPRA Paper 92324, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.