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Long-run consequences of natural disasters: Evidence from Tangshan

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  • Xu, Guo

Abstract

Exploiting Tangshan 1976 - the deadliest earthquake in the 20th century - as a source of exogenous variation, we estimate the cohort-specific effects of a historical shock on contemporary socio-economic outcomes. While cohorts born after the earthquake were considerably larger, the adverse post-disaster conditions did not translate into lasting impacts on schooling and labour market outcomes. Cohorts at schooling age during the earthquake, however, exhibit considerably lower education levels today, particularly among the female. Despite lower education, there is no evidence for adverse labour market outcomes. We conduct extensive robustness checks and argue that the effect is causal.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Guo, 2011. "Long-run consequences of natural disasters: Evidence from Tangshan," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 82, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec11:82
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Di Pietro & Toni Mora, 2015. "The Effect of the L'Aquila Earthquake on Labour Market Outcomes," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 33(2), pages 239-255, April.
    2. Wang, Jun & Yang, Juan & Li, Bo, 2017. "Pain of disasters: The educational cost of exogenous shocks evidence from Tangshan Earthquake in 1976," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 27-49.
    3. Jin, Ling & Chen, Kevin Z. & Yu, Bingxin & Filipski, Mateusz, 2015. "Farmers' Coping Strategies against an Aggregate Shock: Evidence from the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211814, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Tian, Xinping & Gong, Jinquan & Zhai, Zhe, 2022. "Natural disasters and human capital accumulation: Evidence from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental shock; earthquake; natural disaster; education; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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