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Heterogeneous policy responses and the risk of monetary disintegration in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Cornelius, Peter K.
  • Trimbur, Thomas

Abstract

Leaving EMU would create great legal uncertainty and costly litigation and would hence involve extremely high costs for a country that has fully been euronized. Nevertheless, it is conceivable that these costs are not high enough to eliminate fully the risk of monetary disintegration in Europe. In assessing this risk, the paper distinguishes several exit scenarios, whereby particular emphasis is paid to the case where a country decides unilaterally to leave EMU either because of the lack of stabilization efforts in the rest of the union, or, in turn, due to union-wide stabilization efforts which are regarded as excessively ambitious. The empirical results suggest heterogeneous policy responses to macroeconomic strains, implying a non-trivial possibility of escalating tension among the EMU members.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelius, Peter K. & Trimbur, Thomas, 2000. "Heterogeneous policy responses and the risk of monetary disintegration in Europe," Research Notes 00-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:001
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/40274/1/314679618.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne, 1997. "Transition Issues for the European Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Monetary Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," GWS Discussion Paper Series 12-8, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Currency Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," EcoMod2012 3831, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; monetary disintegration;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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