IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Does a free trade area favors an optimum currency area? The Case of Morocco and the European Union

  • Lahcen ACHY

    (INSEA, Rabat, Morocco)

  • Juliette Milgram

    (Grenade University, Spain)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate simultaneously the potential effects of European Union's Association Agreement with Morocco and the adoption of the Euro as a single currency on exchange rate regime of Moroccan Dirham. Since Morocco depends heavily on EU as a market for its exports and a source for its imports, limited variability of the DH against the Euro seems à priori, to be an appropriate policy option. This option may even be strengthened within the FTA. However, the nature and the composition of Moroccan exports are typical of North-South trade with little diversification and high concentration on textiles and agricultural products. From this perspective, the risk of asymmetric shocks is more likely, which reduces the expected gains from nominal anchorage. This paper aims at contributing to the future exchange rate regime in Morocco and focuses on three main issues. The first issue is to investigate the potential effects of the FTA on trade structure and industrial specialization in Morocco. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the implementation of the FTA on industrial sector. The second issue is to estimate the real exchange rate equilibrium based on macroeconomic fundamentals and assess the degree of misalignment of the actual value of the Dirham. Finally, the question of exchange rate arrangement is examined by combining the expected effects of free trade area between Morocco and the European Union, the existing degree of misalignment of the Dirham, and considering the adoption of the Euro as a single currency in 12 European countries. Our results seem to suggest that the implementation of a FTA may lead to a reallocation of industrial production toward an even more specialization in labor-intensive products. Under such circumstances, the symmetry of shocks, as an important condition for anchoring the DH to the Euro, is not satisfied making this option non-desirable.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0512012.

in new window

Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 14 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0512012
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18. Free Trade Area and Currency Union
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Achy, Lahcen, 2001. "Equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment In selected MENA countries," MPRA Paper 4799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  2. Benassy-Quere, A. & Fontagne, L. & Lahreche-Revil, A., 2000. "Exchange Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting FDI," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 2000.07, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  3. Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
  4. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 263-287, July.
  5. Hoekman, Bernard, 1995. "The WTO, the EU and the Arab World: Trade Policy Priorities and Pitfalls," CEPR Discussion Papers 1226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. de Melo, Jaime, 1988. "Computable general equilibrium models for trade policy analysis in developing countries: A survey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 469-503.
  7. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
  8. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  9. George T. Abed, 1998. "Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in the Southern Mediterranean Region," IMF Working Papers 98/49, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Susan Fennell & Patricia Alonso-Gamo & Khaled Sakr, 1997. "Adjusting to New Realities: MENA, The Uruguay Round, and the EU-Mediterranean Initiative," IMF Working Papers 97/5, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0512012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.