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Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity

  • Scott E. Page
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    In this paper, I formally define uncertainty, difficulty, and complexity both as measures of problems and environments and as analytic paragdigms and discuss the importance of the difficulty and uncertainty paradigms in the study of institutions.

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    Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Research in Economics with number 98-08-076e.

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    Date of creation: Aug 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:safire:98-08-076e
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
    Web page: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/working-papers.html

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    1. Alchian, Armen A & Demsetz, Harold, 1972. "Production , Information Costs, and Economic Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 777-95, December.
    2. Jordan, J. S., 1982. "The competitive allocation process is informationally efficient uniquely," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Steven N. Durlauf, 1996. "Statistical Mechanics Approaches to Socioeconomic Behavior," Working Papers 96-08-069, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. Kieron J. Meagher, 1996. "Managing Change and the Success of Niche Products," Working Papers 96-08-066, Santa Fe Institute.
    5. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1992. "Additive Representation of Non-Additive Measures and the Choquet Integral," Discussion Papers 985, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    6. Kiminiori Matsuyama, 1995. "Economic Development as Coordination Problems," Discussion Papers 1123, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Ariel Rubinstein, 1997. "Finite automata play the repeated prisioners dilemma," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1639, David K. Levine.
    8. Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 895, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    9. W. Bentley MacLeod, 1996. "Decision, Contract, and Emotion: Some Economics for a Complex and Confusing World," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 788-810, November.
    10. Roy RADNER & Timothy VAN ZANDT, 1992. "Information Processing in Firms and Returns to Scale," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 25-26, pages 265-298.
    11. John D. Sterman, 1989. "Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 321-339, March.
    12. Leigh TESFATSION, 1995. "How Economists Can Get Alife," Economic Report 37, Iowa State University Department of Economics.
    13. Kalai, Ehud & Stanford, William, 1988. "Finite Rationality and Interpersonal Complexity in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 397-410, March.
    14. John H. Nachbar, 1997. "Prediction, Optimization, and Learning in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 275-310, March.
    15. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Kenneth R. Mount & Stanley Reiter, 1990. "A Model of Computing with Human Agents," Discussion Papers 890, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Miller, John H., 1996. "The coevolution of automata in the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 87-112, January.
    18. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. " Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-70, October.
    19. Menard, Claude, 1995. "Markets as institutions versus organizations as markets? Disentangling some fundamental concepts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 161-182, October.
    20. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    21. Reiter, Stanley, 1977. "Information and Performance in the (New)2 Welfare Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 226-34, February.
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