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Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity

  • Scott E. Page
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    In this paper, I formally define uncertainty, difficulty, and complexity both as measures of problems and environments and as analytic paragdigms and discuss the importance of the difficulty and uncertainty paradigms in the study of institutions.

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    File URL: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Working-Papers/98-08-076E.ps
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    File URL: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Working-Papers/98-08-076E.pdf
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    Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Research in Economics with number 98-08-076e.

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    Date of creation: Aug 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:safire:98-08-076e
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    Web page: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/working-papers.html

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    1. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. " Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-70, October.
    2. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    3. Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 895, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    4. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1994. "Additive Representations of Non-Additive Measures and the Choquet Integral," Post-Print hal-00753149, HAL.
    5. Steven N. Durlauf, 1996. "Statistical Mechanics Approaches to Socioeconomic Behavior," NBER Technical Working Papers 0203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reiter, Stanley, 1977. "Information and Performance in the (New)2 Welfare Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 226-34, February.
    7. Ehud Kalai & William Stanford, 1986. "Finite Rationality and Interpersonal Complexity in Repeated Games," Discussion Papers 679, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. John D. Sterman, 1989. "Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 321-339, March.
    9. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1986. "Finite automata play the repeated prisoner's dilemma," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-96, June.
    10. W. Bentley MacLeod, 1996. "Decision, Contract and Emotion: Some Economics for a Complex and Confusing World," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 336., Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Kiminiori Matsuyama, 1995. "Economic Development as Coordination Problems," Discussion Papers 1123, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    12. John H. Nachbar, 1997. "Prediction, Optimization, and Learning in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 275-310, March.
    13. Armen A. Alchian & Harold Demsetz, 1971. "Production, Information Costs and Economic Organizations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 10A, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Kieron J. Meagher, 1996. "Managing Change and the Success of Niche Products," Working Papers 96-08-066, Santa Fe Institute.
    15. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1997. "How Economists Can Get Alife," Staff General Research Papers 1685, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kenneth R. Mount & Stanley Reiter, 1990. "A Model of Computing with Human Agents," Discussion Papers 890, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    18. Jordan, J. S., 1982. "The competitive allocation process is informationally efficient uniquely," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Miller, John H., 1996. "The coevolution of automata in the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 87-112, January.
    21. repec:adr:anecst:y:1992:i:25-26:p:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Menard, Claude, 1995. "Markets as institutions versus organizations as markets? Disentangling some fundamental concepts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 161-182, October.
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