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Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations

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Listed:
  • Strand, Jon
  • Miller, Sebastian
  • Siddiqui, Sauleh

Abstract

Investments in large, long-lived, energy-intensive infrastructure investments using fossil fuels increase longer-term energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, unless the plant is shut down early or undergoes costly retrofit later. These investments will depend on expectations of retrofit costs and future energy costs, including energy cost increases from tighter controls on carbon emissions. Simulation analysis shows that the retrofit option can significantly reduce anticipated future energy consumption as of the time of initial investment, and total future energy plus retrofit costs. The more uncertain are the costs, the greater the value of this option. However, the future retrofit option also induces more energy-intensive infrastructure choices, partly offsetting the direct effect of having the option on anticipated energy use. Efficient, forward-looking infrastructure investments have high potential for reducing long-term energy consumption. Particularly if energy prices are expected to rise, however, the potential for reduced energy consumption will be eroded if expectations of energy prices do not include environmental costs or future retrofit possibilities and technologies are not adequately developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Strand, Jon & Miller, Sebastian & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2011. "Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5516, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Framstad, Nils Chr. & Strand, Jon, 2015. "Energy intensive infrastructure investments with retrofits in continuous time: Effects of uncertainty on energy use and carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Benjamin Jones & Michael Keen & Jon Strand, 2013. "Fiscal implications of climate change," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 29-70, February.
    3. Alejandro Bonvecchi & Carlos Scartascini, 2011. "The Presidency and the Executive Branch in Latin America: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Research Department Publications 4756, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Jorge Fernández & Sebastián J. Miller, 2011. "When Should Developing Countries Announce Their Climate Policy?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3960, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Production and Transportation; Climate Change Economics; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Environment and Energy Efficiency; Energy and Environment;

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