IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations

  • Strand, Jon
  • Miller, Sebastian
  • Siddiqui, Sauleh

Investments in large, long-lived, energy-intensive infrastructure investments using fossil fuels increase longer-term energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, unless the plant is shut down early or undergoes costly retrofit later. These investments will depend on expectations of retrofit costs and future energy costs, including energy cost increases from tighter controls on carbon emissions. Simulation analysis shows that the retrofit option can significantly reduce anticipated future energy consumption as of the time of initial investment, and total future energy plus retrofit costs. The more uncertain are the costs, the greater the value of this option. However, the future retrofit option also induces more energy-intensive infrastructure choices, partly offsetting the direct effect of having the option on anticipated energy use. Efficient, forward-looking infrastructure investments have high potential for reducing long-term energy consumption. Particularly if energy prices are expected to rise, however, the potential for reduced energy consumption will be eroded if expectations of energy prices do not include environmental costs or future retrofit possibilities and technologies are not adequately developed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/01/03/000158349_20110103092025/Rendered/PDF/WPS5516.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5516.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5516
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. François Gusdorf & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2006. "Behaviors and housing inertia are key factors in determining the consequences of a shock in transportation costs," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00096936, HAL.
  2. Francois GUSDORF & Stéphane HALLEGATTE, . "Compact or Spread-Out Cities: Urban Planning, Taxation, and the Vulnerability to Transportation Shocks," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100017, EcoMod.
  3. Ha-Duong, Minh, 1998. "Quasi-option value and climate policy choices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 599-620, December.
  4. Franck Lecocq & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Minh Ha-Duong, 1998. "Decision making under uncertainty and inertia constraints: sectoral implications of the when flexibility," Post-Print halshs-00002458, HAL.
  5. Rolf Golombek & Michael Hoel, 2003. "Climate Policy under Technology Spillovers," Working Papers 2003.38, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Acemoglu, Daron & Aghion, Philippe & Bursztyn, Leonardo & Hemous, David, 2011. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 8660, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Minh Ha-Duong & Michael Grubb & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Post-Print halshs-00002452, HAL.
  8. Golombek Rolf & Greaker Mads & Hoel Michael, 2010. "Carbon Taxes and Innovation without Commitment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, April.
  9. Golombek Rolf & Hoel Michael, 2006. "Second-Best Climate Agreements and Technology Policy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, January.
  10. Edward L. Glaeser & Matthew E. Kahn, 2008. "The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development," NBER Working Papers 14238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Strand, Jon, 2010. "Inertia in infrastructure development : some analytical aspects, and reasons for inefficient infrastructure choices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5295, The World Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.