Energy intensive infrastructure investments with retrofits in continuous time : effects of uncertainty on energy use and carbon emissions
Energy-intensive infrastructure may tie up fossil energy use and carbon emissions for a long time after investments, making the structure of such investments crucial for society. Much or most of the resulting carbon emissions can often be eliminated later, through a costly retrofit. This paper studies the simultaneous decision to invest in such infrastructure, and retrofit it later, in a model where future climate damages are uncertain and follow a geometric Brownian motion process with positive drift. It shows that greater uncertainty about climate cost (for given unconditional expected costs) then delays the retrofit decision by increasing the option value of waiting to invest. Higher energy intensity is also chosen for the initial infrastructure when uncertainty is greater. These decisions are efficient given that energy and carbon prices facing the decision maker are (globally) correct, but inefficient when they are lower, which is more typical. Greater uncertainty about future climate costs will then further increase lifetime carbon emissions from the infrastructure, related both to initial investments, and to too infrequent retrofits when this emissions level is already too high. An initially excessive climate gas emissions level is then likely to be worsened when volatility increases.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pindyck, Robert S., 2000.
"Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 233-259, July.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Working papers WP 4047-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- repec:inr:wpaper:244628 is not listed on IDEAS
- Strand, Jon, 2014.
"Implications of a lowered damage trajectory for mitigation in a continuous-time stochastic model,"
Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 43-49.
- Strand, Jon, 2011. "Implications of a lowered damage trajectory for mitigation in a continuous-time stochastic model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5724, The World Bank.
- Strand, Jon & Miller, Sebastian, 2010. "Climate cost uncertainty, retrofit cost uncertainty, and infrastructure closedown : a framework for analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5208, The World Bank.
- Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Meunier, Guy & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012.
"How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6154, The World Bank.
- Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Guy Meunier & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy," Post-Print hal-00722574, HAL.
- Nils Chr. Framstad, 2014. "When can the environmental profile and emissions reduction be optimised independently of the pollutant level?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-45, March.
- Framstad, Nils Chr., 2013. "When can environmental profile and emissions reductions be optimized independently of the pollutant level?," Memorandum 12/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Balikcioglu, Metin & Fackler, Paul L. & Pindyck, Robert S., 2011. "Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 761-768, September.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
- Guy Meunier & Dominique Finon, 2013. "Option value in low-carbon technology policies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Stéphane Hallegatte & Christophe De Gouvello, 2014. "Marginal Abatement Cost Curves and Quality of Emission Reductions: A Case Study on Brazil," Post-Print hal-00966821, HAL.
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 5474.
- Strand, Jon & Miller, Sebastian & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2011. "Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5516, The World Bank.
- Minh Ha-Duong & Michael Grubb & Jean Charles Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Post-Print halshs-00002452, HAL.
- Franck Lecocq & Zmarak Shalizi, 2014. "The economics of targeted mitigation in infrastructure," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 187-208, March.
- Framstad, N.C., 2011. "A remark on R.S. Pindyck: "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy"," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 756-760, September.
- Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane & de Gouvello Christophe, 2014. "Long-term mitigation strategies and marginal abatement cost curves : a case study on Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6808, The World Bank.
- Anas, Alex & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Lock-in effects of road expansion on CO2 emissions : results from a core-periphery model of Beijing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5017, The World Bank.
- repec:inr:wpaper:174772 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.