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Crisis in Latin America : infrastructure investment, employment and the expectations of stimulus

Author

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  • Schwartz, Jordan Z.
  • Andres, Luis A.
  • Dragoiu, Georgeta

Abstract

Infrastructure investment is a central part of the stimulus plans of the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region as it confronts the growing financial crisis. This paper estimates the potential effects on direct, indirect, and induced employment for different types of infrastructure projects with LAC-specific variables. The analysis finds that the direct and indirect short-term employment generation potential of infrastructure capital investment projects may be considerable - averaging around 40,000 annual jobs per US$1billion in LAC, depending upon such variables as the mix of subsectors in the investment program; the technologies deployed; local wages for skilled and unskilled labor; and the degrees of leakages to imported inputs. While these numbers do not account for substitution effect, they are built around an assumed"basket"of investments that crosses infrastructure sectors most of which are not employment-maximizing. Albeit limited in scope, rural road maintenance projects may employ 200,000 to 500,000 annualized direct jobs for every US$1billion spent. The paper also describes the potential risks to effective infrastructure investment in an environment of crisis including sorting and planning contradictions, delayed implementation and impact, affordability, and corruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwartz, Jordan Z. & Andres, Luis A. & Dragoiu, Georgeta, 2009. "Crisis in Latin America : infrastructure investment, employment and the expectations of stimulus," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5009, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ada Karina Izaguirre, 2009. "Assessment of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects : Update Three," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10982, The World Bank.
    2. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December.
    3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    4. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    5. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    6. Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity; A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Thomas, Duncan & Strauss, John, 1992. "Prices, infrastructure, household characteristics and child height," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-331, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Bonzanigo, Laura & Fay, Marianne & Narloch, Ulf & Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2014. "Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7126, The World Bank.
    2. Ruiz Nunez,Fernanda & Wei,Zichao, 2015. "Infrastructure investment demands in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7414, The World Bank.
    3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud & Garsous, Grégoire & Yepes, Tito, 2013. "Job Creation through Infrastructure Investment in the Middle East and North Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 209-222.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Banks&Banking Reform; Non Bank Financial Institutions; Debt Markets;

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