CPI Bias and Real Living Standards in Russia During the Transition
The economies of the former Soviet Bloc experienced large declines in output during the decade of transition which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Yet there are many reasons to believe that measured output and official deflators provide a poor proxy for the change in real living standards in transition economies. This paper uses the Engel curve methodology recently developed by Hamilton (2001) and Costa (2001) to examine changes in real living standards in Russia during the transition period and to provide an estimate of how much the officialRussian CPI has overstated consumer inflation. We also examine changes in consumer durables, home production, and subjective well-being to further evaluate changes in living standards. Our findings indicate that CPI bias has caused a substantial understatement of the growth performance of the Russian economy during the transition. Even just allowing household final consumption to be deflated with bias, we find that the level of real per capita GDP in 2001 may be understated by up to thirty percent compared with using a bias-corrected deflator. Our analysis of consumer durables, home production, and subjective well-being supports the conclusion that the decline in living standards has been substantially less than what is inferred by looking at official statistics on real output.
|Date of creation:||24 Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: + 64 (0)7 838 4758 (Administrator)
Fax: + 64 7 838 4331
Web page: http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2001.
"Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 556-592.
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2000. "Lost But Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesian Family Life Survey," Working Papers 00-03, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2004. "Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Labor and Demography 0408007, EconWPA.
- Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003.
"International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns,"
33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Stillman, Steven & Thomas, Duncan, 2004. "The Effect of Economic Crises on Nutritional Status: Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 1092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1998.
"Economies of Scale, Household Size, and the Demand for Food,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 897-930, October.
- Deaton, A. & Paxson, C., 1997. "Economies of Scale, Household Size, and the Demand for Food," Papers 178, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2002.
"Market Integration in Russia During the Transformation Years,"
116, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Konstantin Gluschenko, 2003. "Market integration in Russia during the transformation years," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 411-434, 09.
- Timothy Beatty & Erling Røed Larsen, 2005.
"Using Engel curves to estimate bias in the Canadian CPI as a cost of living index,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 482-499, May.
- Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Larsen, Erling Roed, 2004. "Using Engel Curves To Estimate Bias In The Canadian Cpi As A Cost Of Living Index," Working Papers 15836, University of British Columbia, Food and Resource Economics.
- World Bank, 2002. "Transition, The First Ten Years : Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14042, December.
- David J. McKenzie, 2006.
"The Consumer Response to the Mexican Peso Crisis,"
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 55, pages 139-172.
- Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 23-44, Winter.
- Elisabetta Falcetti & Martin Raiser & Peter Sanfey, 2000.
"Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition,"
55, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
- Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.
- Boskin, Michael J & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1997. "Implications of Overstating Inflation for Indexing Government Programs and Understanding Economic Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 89-93, May.
- Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2006. "Biases in cross-space comparisons through cross-time price indexes: The case of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- World Bank, 2005. "Russia : Reducing Poverty through Growth and Social Policy Reform," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8523, The World Bank.
- Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N. & Husted, Steven, 1998. "Quantifying Price Liberalization in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 735-760, December.
- Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek, 2001.
"Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition,"
- Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp167, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Paul R. Gregory & Valery Lazarev, 2004. "Structural Change in Russian Transition," Working Papers 896, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2001.
"Survey-based Estimates of Biases in Consumer Price Indices During Transition: Evidence from Romania,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp178, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Filer, Randall K. & Hanousek, Jan, 2002. "Survey-Based Estimates of Biases in Consumer Price Indices during Transition: Evidence from Romania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 476-487, September.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1998. "Quality Change in Price Indexes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 59-68, Winter.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Brada, Josef C. & King, Arthur E. & Kutan, Ali M., 2000. "Inflation bias and productivity shocks in transition economies: The case of the Czech Republic," ZEI Working Papers B 02-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
- Bruce W. Hamilton, 2001. "Using Engel's Law to Estimate CPI Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 619-630, June.
- Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
- Kolodko, Grzegorz W., 2000. "From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198297437, March.
- A. Еslund, 2001. "The Myth of Output Collapse After Communism," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
- Dora L. Costa, 2001. "Estimating Real Income in the United States from 1888 to 1994: Correcting CPI Bias Using Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1288-1310, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:04/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.