IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7907.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

CPI bias and its implications for poverty reduction in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Dabalen,Andrew L.
  • Gaddis,Isis
  • Nguyen,Nga Thi Viet

Abstract

International poverty estimates for countries in Africa commonly rely on national consumer price indexes to adjust trends in nominal consumption over time for changes in the cost of living. However, the consumer price index is subject to various types of measurement bias. This paper uses Engel curve estimations to assess bias in the consumer price index and its implications for estimated poverty trends. The results suggest that in 11 of 16 Sub-Saharan African countries in this study, poverty reduction may be understated because of consumer price index bias. With correction of consumer price index bias, poverty in these countries could fall between 0.8 and 5.7 percentage points per year faster than currently thought. For two countries, however, the paper finds the opposite trend. There is no statistically significant change in poverty patterns after adjusting for consumer price index bias for the other three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabalen,Andrew L. & Gaddis,Isis & Nguyen,Nga Thi Viet, 2016. "CPI bias and its implications for poverty reduction in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7907, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/284781481032358665/pdf/WPS7907.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. J. Prais, 1959. "Whose Cost of Living?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 26(2), pages 126-134.
    2. Garry F. Barrett & Matthew Brzozowski, 2010. "Using Engel Curves to Estimate the Bias in the Australian CPI," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(272), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Matthew Brzozowski, 2006. "Does One Size Fit All? The CPI and Canadian Seniors," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(4), pages 387-412, December.
    4. Ingvild Almas, 2012. "International Income Inequality: Measuring PPP Bias by Estimating Engel Curves for Food," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1093-1117, April.
    5. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud & Rohini Somanathan, 2019. "A Behavior‐Based Approach to the Estimation of Poverty in India," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 182-224, January.
    6. Timothy K.M. Beatty & Erling Røed Larsen, 2005. "Using Engel curves to estimate bias in the Canadian CPI as a cost of living index," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 482-499, May.
    7. Lange, Simon & Klasen, Stephan, 2017. "How the New International Goal for Child Mortality is Unfair to Sub-Saharan Africa (Again)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 128-146.
    8. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Miao Liu, 2016. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 113-144, July.
    9. Erling Røed Larsen, 2007. "Does the CPI Mirror the Cost of Living? Engel's Law Suggests Not in Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(1), pages 177-195, March.
    10. Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 23-44, Winter.
    11. Ingvild Almås & Tim Beatty & Thomas Crossley, 2018. "Lost in translation: What do Engel curves tell us about the cost of living?," IFS Working Papers W18/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    13. Kaplan, Greg & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2017. "Inflation at the household level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-38.
    14. Gaddis,Isis, 2016. "Prices for poverty analysis in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7652, The World Bank.
    15. Gunther, Isabel & Grimm, Michael, 2007. "Measuring pro-poor growth when relative prices shift," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 245-256, January.
    16. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," NBER Working Papers 18490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    18. Angus Deaton, 1998. "Getting Prices Right: What Should Be Done?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 37-46, Winter.
    19. Chul Chung & John Gibson & Bonggeun Kim, 2010. "CPI Mismeasurements and Their Impacts on Economic Management in Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, Winter/Sp.
    20. James Gorry & Dean Scrimgeour, 2018. "Using Engel Curves To Estimate Consumer Price Index Bias For The Elderly," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 539-553, July.
    21. Trevon D. Logan, 2008. "Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?," NBER Working Papers 13870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Dipankor Coondoo & Amita Majumder & Somnath Chattopadhyay, 2011. "Estimating Spatial Consumer Price Indices Through Engel Curve Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(1), pages 138-155, March.
    23. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 696-739.
    24. Filho, Irineu de Carvalho & Chamon, Marcos, 2012. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 368-386.
    25. Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven & Le, Trinh, 2008. "CPI bias and real living standards in Russia during the transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 140-160, August.
    26. Kathleen Beegle & Luc Christiaensen & Andrew Dabalen & Isis Gaddis, 2016. "Poverty in a Rising Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22575, December.
    27. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2014. "Africa is on time," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 311-338, September.
    28. Demombynes, Gabriel & Trommlerová, Sofia Karina, 2016. "What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 17-32.
    29. Dora L. Costa, 2001. "Estimating Real Income in the United States from 1888 to 1994: Correcting CPI Bias Using Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1288-1310, December.
    30. Robert A. Pollak, 1998. "The Consumer Price Index: A Research Agenda and Three Proposals," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 69-78, Winter.
    31. John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2010. "Using Engel curves to estimate CPI bias in a small, open, inflation-targeting economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(17), pages 1327-1335.
    32. John Gibson & Trinh Le & Bonggeun Kim, 2017. "Prices, Engel Curves, and Time-Space Deflation: Impacts on Poverty and Inequality in Vietnam," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 504-530.
    33. Chamon, Marcos & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2014. "Consumption based estimates of urban Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 126-137.
    34. Matthew D. Shapiro & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. World Bank, 2015. "Tanzania Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 21871, The World Bank Group.
    36. Bruce W. Hamilton, 2001. "Using Engel's Law to Estimate CPI Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 619-630, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yan & Costlow, Leah & Ebel, Alissa & Laves, Sarah & Ueda, Yurika & Volin, Natalie & Zamek, Maya & Herforth, Anna & Masters, William A., 2021. "Review: Retail consumer price data reveal gaps and opportunities to monitor food systems for nutrition," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    3. Noumba, Issidor & Noula, Armand Gilbert & Nguea, Stéphane Mbiankeu, 2022. "Do globalization and resource rents matter for human well-being? Evidence from African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 49-65.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    2. Gaddis,Isis, 2016. "Prices for poverty analysis in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7652, The World Bank.
    3. James Gorry & Dean Scrimgeour, 2018. "Using Engel Curves To Estimate Consumer Price Index Bias For The Elderly," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 539-553, July.
    4. Ingvild Almas & Ashild Johnsen, 2018. "The cost of a growth miracle - reassessing price and poverty trends in China," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 239-264, October.
    5. Filho, Irineu de Carvalho & Chamon, Marcos, 2012. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 368-386.
    6. Almås, Ingvild & Johnsen, Åshild Auglænd, 2012. "The cost of living in China: Implications for inequality and poverty," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 21/2012, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Miao Liu, 2016. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 113-144, July.
    8. Ingvild Almås & Anders Kjelsrud & Rohini Somanathan, 2019. "A Behavior‐Based Approach to the Estimation of Poverty in India," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 182-224, January.
    9. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    10. Chamon, Marcos & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2014. "Consumption based estimates of urban Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 126-137.
    11. Trevon D. Logan, 2008. "Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?," NBER Working Papers 13870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Erling Røed Larsen, 2014. "Is the Engel curve approach viable in the estimation of alternative PPPs?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 881-904, November.
    13. Majumder,Amita & Ray,Ranjan & Santra,Sattwik, 2015. "Preferences, purchasing power parity, and inequality : analytical framework, propositions, and empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7395, The World Bank.
    14. David Atkin & Benjamin Faber & Thibault Fally & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, 2020. "Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information," NBER Working Papers 26890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Garry F. Barrett & Matthew Brzozowski, 2010. "Using Engel Curves to Estimate the Bias in the Australian CPI," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(272), pages 1-14, March.
    16. Chen,Xiaomeng & Mungai,Rose & Nakamura,Shohei & Pearson,Thomas Patrick & Wambile,Ayago Esmubancha & Yoshida,Nobuo, 2020. "How Useful is CPI Price Data for Spatial Price Adjustment in Poverty Measurement? : A Case from Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9388, The World Bank.
    17. Menggen Chen & Yan Wang & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2020. "Measuring the spatial price differences in China with regional price parity methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 1103-1146, April.
    18. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray & Sattwik Santra, 2016. "Global and Country Poverty Rates, Welfare Rankings of the Regions and Purchasing Power Parities: How Robust Are the Results?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    19. Svedberg, Peter & Tilton, John E., 2006. "The real, real price of nonrenewable resources: copper 1870-2000," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 501-519, March.
    20. Arpit Gupta & Anup Malani & Bartek Woda, 2021. "Explaining the Income and Consumption Effects of COVID in India," NBER Working Papers 28935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Poverty Impact Evaluation; Poverty Lines; Poverty Diagnostics; Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping; Poverty Assessment; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.