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The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

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  • Filho, Irineu de Carvalho
  • Chamon, Marcos

Abstract

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in “real” inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor.

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  • Filho, Irineu de Carvalho & Chamon, Marcos, 2012. "The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 368-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:97:y:2012:i:2:p:368-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.009
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    3. Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Fifty Years Of Growth In American Consumption, Income, And Wages," NBER Working Papers 23292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Orlando Sotomayor, 2019. "Growth with reduction in poverty and inequality: did Brazil show the way?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(4), pages 521-541, December.
    5. Ingvild Almås & Tim Beatty & Thomas Crossley, 2018. "Lost in translation: What do Engel curves tell us about the cost of living?," IFS Working Papers W18/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    7. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    8. Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Marcello M. Estevão, 2012. "Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence From Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2012/084, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Almås, Ingvild & Johnsen, Åshild Auglænd, 2012. "The cost of living in China: Implications for inequality and poverty," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 21/2012, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. Trevon D. Logan, 2008. "Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?," NBER Working Papers 13870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andrew Dabalen & Isis Gaddis & Nga Thi Viet Nguyen, 2020. "CPI Bias and its Implications for Poverty Reduction in Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(1), pages 13-44, March.
    12. Pablo Gluzmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2018. "An estimation of CPI biases in Argentina 1985–2005 and its implications on real income growth and income distribution," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-50, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household consumption; Measurement error; CPI bias; Economic reform; Trade liberalization; Inflation stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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