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Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

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This paper analyzes the market integration process of nominal prices, develops a model to analyze market integration, and presents a test of increasing market integration. A distinction is made between the economic concepts of price convergence in mean and variance. When both types of convergence occur, prices are said to converge in distribution. We present concepts and definitions related to the market integration process, link these to price convergence in distribution, argue that the Law of One Price is not a sufficient condition for market integration, and present a test of price convergence in distribution. We apply our methodology to two different cases, namely the integration of: i) the inland grains market in 19th Century USA, and ii) the Eurozone long-term bonds market after the euro entered circulation.

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  • Alfredo Garcia Hiernaux & David Esteban Guerrero Burbano & Michael McAleer, 2015. "Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-18, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1518
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    Keywords

    Regional and global markets; Integration; Asymptotic price convergence; Mean; Variance; Distribution.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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