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A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Vivienne Pham

    (School Economics, La Trobe University)

  • David Prentice

    (School of Economics, La Trobe University)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse two counterfactual situations facing an antitrust au- thority following the merger of two of the largest international cigarette companies. First we estimate a random coecients model of demand for cigarettes. The implied elasticity of demand for smoking and implied marginal costs are consistent with the independent estimates available. We then use the model to simulate the proposed merger and the partial divesti- ture that was accepted by the Australian antitrust authority. A comparison of the relative price changes predicted by the divestiture simulation with the actual post-divestiture price changes shows that the model is partially successful in predicting the ranking of price changes across companies following the divestiture. This suggests structural econometric analysis us- ing a random coecients model can provide information for antitrust authorities assessing the implications of a potential merger and partial divestiture.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2013. "A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2013.04, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2013.04
    Note: ISSN-1837-2198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiangrui Wang & Ron C. Mittelhammer & Thomas L. Marsh & Jill J. McCluskey, 2023. "Is Divestiture Effective as a Merger Remedy in the U.S. Beer Industry?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Lorraine Conway & David Prentice, 2020. "How Much do Households Respond to Electricity Prices? Evidence from Australia and Abroad," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 290-311, September.
    3. Wang, Xiangrui & Mittelhammer, Ron C. & Marsh, Thomas L. & McCluskey, Jill J., 2017. "Divestiture of US Businesses May Fail as a Merger Remedy: The Case of the US Beer Industry," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258388, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Friberg, Richard & Romahn, André, 2015. "Divestiture requirements as a tool for competition policy: A case from the Swedish beer market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-18.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mergers; divestitures; cigarettes; tobacco; anti-trust policy; competition policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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