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What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?

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  • DONGLING HUANG
  • CHRISTIAN ROJAS
  • FRANK BASS

Abstract

We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the biases of assuming a misspecified demand model. We study continuous models (linear, log‐linear and AIDS), and discrete choice models (logit) in the context of differentiated products and aggregate data. Estimating demand with the ‘wrong’ model yields varying degrees of bias in estimated elasticities, but the logit model can yield unbiased estimates for a certain size of the assumed market potential. Merger simulations confirm the key importance of market potential in logit estimation suggesting that a discrete choice model may be preferable even when the discreteness of the purchase decision is questionable.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:56:y:2008:i:4:p:809-839
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00361.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00361.x
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    4. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.
    5. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    6. Bonnet, Céline & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Corre, Tifenn, 2018. "An Environmental Tax Towards More Sustainable Food: Empirical Evidence of the Consumption of Animal Products in France," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 48-61.
    7. Ryo Sakamoto & Kyle Stiegert, 2018. "Comparing competitive toughness to benchmark outcomes in retail oligopoly pricing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 44-60, December.
    8. Vivienne Pham & David Prentice, 2013. "A Random Coefficients Logit Analysis of the Counterfactual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry," Working Papers 2013.04, School of Economics, La Trobe University.

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