An empirical Analysis of the Counter-factual: A Merger and Divestiture in the Australian Cigarette Industry
In this paper we empirically analyse two counter-factual situations facing an anti-trust authority following the merger of two of the largest international cigarette companies. First we estimate a nested logit model of demand for cigarettes. The implied elasticity of demand for smoking and implied marginal costs are both broadly consistent with the limited independent estimates available. We then use the model to simulate the proposed merger and the partial divestiture that was accepted by the Australian anti-trust authority. A comparison of the relative price changes predicted by the divestiture simulation with the actual post-divestiture price changes shows the model successfully anticipated the behaviour of the divested brands. This suggests structural econometric analysis using a nested logit may be usefully utilised by anti-trust authorities to assess the welfare implications of proposed mergers and partial divestitures.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/economics|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004.
"Assessing the Magnitude of the Concentration Parameter in a Simultaneous Equations Model,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
29/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2009. "Assessing the magnitude of the concentration parameter in a simultaneous equations model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 26-44, 03.
- John Tauras & Richard Peck & Frank Chaloupka, 2006. "The Role of Retail Prices and Promotions in Determining Cigarette Brand Market Shares," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 253-284, 05.
- Bardsley, Peter & Olekalns, Nilss, 1999.
"Cigarette and Tobacco Consumption: Have Anti-smoking Policies Made a Difference?,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 225-40, September.
- Bardsley, P. & Olekans, N., 1998. "Cigarette and Tobacco Consumption: Have Anti-Smoking Policies Made a Difference?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 615, The University of Melbourne.
- Jith Jayaratne & Carl Shapiro, 2000. "Simulating Partial Asset Divestitures to 'Fix' Mergers," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 179-200.
- Daniel A. Ackerberg & Marc Rysman, 2002.
"Unobserved Product Differentiation in Discrete Choice Models: Estimating Price Elasticities and Welfare Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
8798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel A. Ackerberg & Marc Rysman, 2005. "Unobserved Product Differentiation in Discrete-Choice Models: Estimating Price Elasticities and Welfare Effects," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(4), pages 771-788, Winter.
- Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-49, October.
- Keane, Michael P., 2010. "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 3-20, May.
- Aviv Nevo, 2003.
"Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry,"
- Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-42, March.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Industry," Food Marketing Policy Center Research Reports 037, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1999. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt7cm5p858, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Industry," Research Reports 25164, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
- Aviv Nevo, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," NBER Working Papers 6387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Igal Hendel, 1999. "Estimating Multiple-Discrete Choice Models: An Application to Computerization Returns," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 423-446.
- Richards, Timothy J., 2005.
"A Nested Logit Model of Strategic Promotion,"
2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI
19336, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Aguirregabiria, Victor & Nevo, Aviv, 2010.
"Recent developments in empirical IO: dynamic demand and dynamic games,"
27814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Aviv Nevo, 2000. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(3), pages 395-421, Autumn.
- Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "WHAT HAPPENS WHEN DEMAND IS ESTIMATED WITH A MISSPECIFIED MODEL? -super-," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
- Jean-Pierre H. Dubé & Jeremy T. Fox & Che-Lin Su, 2009. "Improving the Numerical Performance of BLP Static and Dynamic Discrete Choice Random Coefficients Demand Estimation," NBER Working Papers 14991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2009.
"Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey,"
82/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
- Chiou, Lesley, 2008. "The timing of movie releases: Evidence from the home video industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
- Ackerberg, Daniel & Lanier Benkard, C. & Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 2007. "Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 63 Elsevier.
- Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
- Cardell, N. Scott, 1997. "Variance Components Structures for the Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 185-213, April.
- Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ltr:wpaper:2010.08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephen Scoglio)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stephen Scoglio to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.