IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revind/v58y2021i1d10.1007_s11151-020-09805-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative Methods for Evaluating the Unilateral Effects of Mergers

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan H. Miller

    (Georgetown University)

  • Gloria Sheu

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

We describe the quantitative modeling techniques that are used in horizontal merger review for the evaluation of unilateral effects, and discuss how the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines helped legitimize these methods and motivate scholarly research. We cover markets that feature differentiated products pricing, auctions and negotiations, and homogeneous products, in turn. We also develop connections between quantitative modeling and market concentration screens that are based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan H. Miller & Gloria Sheu, 2021. "Quantitative Methods for Evaluating the Unilateral Effects of Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 143-177, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:58:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11151-020-09805-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11151-020-09805-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11151-020-09805-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11151-020-09805-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher T. Conlon & Nirupama L. Rao, 2020. "Discrete Prices and the Incidence and Efficiency of Excise Taxes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 111-143, November.
    2. Gregory J. Werden & Luke M. Froeb, 1998. "The Entry‐Inducing Effects of Horizontal Mergers: An Exploratory Analysis," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 525-543, December.
    3. Farrell, Joseph & Shapiro, Carl, 1990. "Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 107-126, March.
    4. Jerry Hausman & Gregory Leonard & J. Douglas Zona, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 143-157.
    5. Waehrer, Keith & Perry, Martin K, 2003. "The Effects of Mergers in Open-Auction Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(2), pages 287-304, Summer.
    6. Bulow, Jeremy & Klemperer, Paul, 1996. "Auctions versus Negotiations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 180-194, March.
    7. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ying Fan, 2013. "Ownership Consolidation and Product Characteristics: A Study of the US Daily Newspaper Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1598-1628, August.
    9. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Aviv Nevo & Robert Town, 2015. "Mergers When Prices Are Negotiated: Evidence from the Hospital Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 172-203, January.
    10. David Hennessy, 2000. "Cournot Oligopoly Conditions under which Any Horizontal Merger Is Profitable," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 17(3), pages 277-284, November.
    11. Jéssica Dutra & Tarun Sabarwal, 2020. "Antitrust analysis with upward pricing pressure and cost efficiencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, January.
    12. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    13. Howard Shelanski & Joseph Farrell & Daniel Hanner & Christopher Metcalf & Mary Sullivan & Brett Wendling, 2012. "Economics at the FTC: Drug and PBM Mergers and Drip Pricing," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 41(4), pages 303-319, December.
    14. Dan Hanner & Ginger Zhe Jin & Marc Luppino & Ted Rosenbaum, 2016. "Economics at the FTC: Horizontal Mergers and Data Security," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 49(4), pages 613-631, December.
    15. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    16. Miller, Nathan H., 2014. "Modeling the effects of mergers in procurement," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 201-208.
    17. Stephen W. Salant & Sheldon Switzer & Robert J. Reynolds, 1983. "Losses From Horizontal Merger: The Effects of an Exogenous Change in Industry Structure on Cournot-Nash Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 185-199.
    18. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2017. "Understanding the Price Effects of the MillerCoors Joint Venture," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85(6), pages 1763-1791, November.
    19. Giulio Federico & Fiona Scott Morton & Carl Shapiro, 2019. "Antitrust and Innovation: Welcoming and Protecting Disruption," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 125-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Froeb, Luke & Tschantz, Steven & Werden, Gregory J., 2005. "Pass-through rates and the price effects of mergers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 703-715, December.
    21. Farrell Joseph & Shapiro Carl, 2010. "Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers: An Economic Alternative to Market Definition," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
    22. Christopher Conlon & Julie Holland Mortimer, 2021. "Empirical properties of diversion ratios," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 693-726, December.
    23. Ramón Faulí-Oller, 1997. "On merger profitability in a cournot setting," Working Papers. Serie AD 1997-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    24. Nocke, Volker & Schutz, Nicolas, 2018. "An Aggregative Games Approach to Merger Analysis in Multiproduct-Firm Oligopoly," CEPR Discussion Papers 12905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Nathan H. Miller & Joseph U. Podwol, 2020. "Forward Contracts, Market Structure and the Welfare Effects of Mergers," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 364-407, June.
    26. Robert Willig, 2011. "Unilateral Competitive Effects of Mergers: Upward Pricing Pressure, Product Quality, and Other Extensions," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 39(1), pages 19-38, August.
    27. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew Osborne, 2014. "Spatial differentiation and price discrimination in the cement industry: evidence from a structural model," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(2), pages 221-247, June.
    28. Werden, Gregory J, 1996. "A Robust Test for Consumer Welfare Enhancing Mergers among Sellers of Differentiated Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 409-413, December.
    29. Russell Pittman & Yan Li, 2013. "At&T And T-Mobile: Economies As An Antitrust Defense Applied," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 49-63.
    30. Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1993. "Some Applications and Limitations of Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Merger Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 247-252, May.
    31. Perry, Martin K & Porter, Robert H, 1985. "Oligopoly and the Incentive for Horizontal Merger," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 219-227, March.
    32. Daniel Greenfield & Bruce Kobayashi & Jeremy Sandford & Christopher Taylor & Nathan Wilson, 2019. "Economics at the FTC: Quantitative Analyses of Two Chemical Manufacturing Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(4), pages 607-623, December.
    33. Rubinfeld, Daniel L. & Epstein, Roy J., 2001. "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt2sq9s8c8, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    34. Froeb, Luke M. & Werden, Gregory J., 1998. "A robust test for consumer welfare enhancing mergers among sellers of a homogeneous product," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 367-369, March.
    35. Tommaso Valletti & Hans Zenger, 2021. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: Where Do We Stand?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 179-212, February.
    36. Werden, Gregory J & Froeb, Luke M, 1998. "The Entry-Inducing Effects of Horizontal Mergers: An Exploratory Analysis," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 525-543, December.
    37. Jason Allen & Robert Clark & Jean-Fran?ois Houde, 2014. "The Effect of Mergers in Search Markets: Evidence from the Canadian Mortgage Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3365-3396, October.
    38. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    39. Werden, Gregory J & Froeb, Luke M, 1994. "The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 407-426, October.
    40. Nicholas Hill, 2008. "Analyzing Mergers Using Capacity Closures," EAG Discussions Papers 200808, Department of Justice, Antitrust Division.
    41. Joseph Farrell & David Balan & Keith Brand & Brett Wendling, 2011. "Economics at the FTC: Hospital Mergers, Authorized Generic Drugs, and Consumer Credit Markets," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 39(4), pages 271-296, December.
    42. Epstein, Roy J. & Rubinfeld, Daniel, 2001. "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1c65s24r, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    43. Roy J. Epstein & Daniel L. Rubinfeld, 2002. "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications," Industrial Organization 0201002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Jeanine Miklós-Thal & Greg Shaffer, 2021. "Pass-Through as an Economic Tool: On Exogenous Competition, Social Incidence, and Price Discrimination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(1), pages 323-335.
    45. Epstein, Roy J. & Rubinfeld, Daniel L., 2001. "Merger Simulation: A Simplified Approach with New Applications," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9jt389nb, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    46. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    47. Werden, Gregory J, 1991. "Horizontal Mergers: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 1002-1006, September.
    48. Volker Nocke & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "Concentration Screens for Horizontal Mergers," NBER Working Papers 27533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Nathan H. Miller & Marc Remer & Conor Ryan & Gloria Sheu, 2016. "Pass-Through and the Prediction of Merger Price Effects," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-709, December.
    50. Philip Crooke & Luke Froeb & Steven Tschantz & Gregory Werden, 1999. "Effects of Assumed Demand Form on Simulated Postmerger Equilibria," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(3), pages 205-217, November.
    51. Fisher, Franklin M & McGowan, John J, 1983. "On the Misuse of Accounting Rates of Return to Infer Monopoly Profits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 82-97, March.
    52. MacKay, Alexander & Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Sheu, Gloria, 2014. "Bias in reduced-form estimates of pass-through," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 200-202.
    53. Fauli-Oller, Ramon, 1997. "On merger profitability in a Cournot setting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-79, January.
    54. Simon Loertscher & Leslie M. Marx, 2019. "Merger Review for Markets with Buyer Power," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2967-3017.
    55. McAfee, R Preston & Williams, Michael A, 1992. "Horizontal Mergers and Antitrust Policy," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 181-187, June.
    56. Marc Ivaldi & Bruno Jullien & Patrick Rey & Paul Seabright & Jean Tirole, 2007. "The Economics of Tacit Collusion:Implications for Merger Control," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Political Economy of Antitrust, pages 217-239, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    57. Sonia Jaffe & E. Glen Weyl, 2013. "The First-Order Approach to Merger Analysis," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 188-218, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2022. "Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy," Current Policy Perspectives 94265, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Michael Vita & Keith Brand & Miriam Larson-Koester & Nathan Petek & Charles Taragin & William Violette & Daniel H. Wood, 2022. "Economics at the FTC: Estimating Harm from Deception and Analyzing Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 61(4), pages 405-438, December.
    3. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2020. "Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 27704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Joanna Fister & Catherine Matraves & Martha Stancill & Donald Stockdale & Sean Sullivan & Shane Taylor & Aleksandr Yankelevich, 2022. "Economics at the FCC 2021–22: 5G Spectrum Auctions, Affordable Connectivity, Broadband Data Collection, and Merger Review," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 61(4), pages 489-520, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaplow, Louis & Shapiro, Carl, 2007. "Antitrust," Handbook of Law and Economics, in: A. Mitchell Polinsky & Steven Shavell (ed.), Handbook of Law and Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 1073-1225, Elsevier.
    2. Nathan H. Miller & Marc Remer & Conor Ryan & Gloria Sheu, 2016. "Pass-Through and the Prediction of Merger Price Effects," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-709, December.
    3. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    4. Jéssica Dutra & Tarun Sabarwal, 2020. "Antitrust analysis with upward pricing pressure and cost efficiencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. Tommaso Valletti & Hans Zenger, 2021. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: Where Do We Stand?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 179-212, February.
    6. Jerome Foncel & Marc Ivaldi & Jrisy Motis, 2008. "An Econometric Workbench for Comparing the Substantive and Dominance Tests in Horizontal Merger Analysis," Working Papers 0833, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    7. Jessica Dutra & Tarun Sabarwal, 2018. "Cost Efficiencies and Upward Pricing Pressure," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201901, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    8. Oliver Budzinski & Isabel Ruhmer, 2010. "Merger Simulation In Competition Policy: A Survey," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 277-319.
    9. Volker Nocke & Nicolas Schutz, 2018. "An Aggregative Games Approach to Merger Analysis in Multiproduct-Firm Oligopoly," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2018_024, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Cosnita-Langlais, Andreea & Johansen, Bjørn Olav & Sørgard, Lars, 2021. "Upward pricing pressure in two-sided markets: Incorporating rebalancing effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Wang, X. Henry & Zhao, Jingang, 2022. "Merger effects in asymmetric and differentiated Bertrand oligopolies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 37-49.
    12. Daniel Greenfield & Bruce Kobayashi & Jeremy Sandford & Christopher Taylor & Nathan Wilson, 2019. "Economics at the FTC: Quantitative Analyses of Two Chemical Manufacturing Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(4), pages 607-623, December.
    13. Christopher Conlon & Julie Holland Mortimer, 2021. "Empirical properties of diversion ratios," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 693-726, December.
    14. Peter Davis & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2014. "The flexible coefficient multinomial logit (FC-MNL) model of demand for differentiated products," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(1), pages 32-63, March.
    15. Marie Goppelsroeder & Maarten Pieter Schinkel & Jan Tuinstra, 2008. "Quantifying The Scope For Efficiency Defense In Merger Control: The Werden‐Froeb‐Index," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 778-808, December.
    16. Oliver Budzinski & Arndt Christiansen, 2007. "The Oracle/PeopleSoft Case: Unilateral Effects, Simulation Models and Econometrics in Contemporary Merger Control," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200702, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Kai Hüschelrath, 2009. "Detection Of Anticompetitive Horizontal Mergers," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 683-721.
    18. Simon Loertscher & Leslie M. Marx, 2021. "Coordinated Effects in Merger Review," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 705-744.
    19. Ralph Siebert, 2017. "Heterogeneous Merger Impacts on Competitive Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 6607, CESifo.
    20. Andreea Cosnita-Langlais & Bjørn Olav Johansen & Lars Sorgard, 2018. "Upward Price Pressure in Two-Sided Markets: Incorporating Feedback Effects," Working Papers hal-04141797, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mergers; Antitrust; Unilateral effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General
    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:58:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11151-020-09805-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.