IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiucen/8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government and Central Bank Interaction under uncertainty : A Differential Games Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Engwerda, Jacob

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Mahmoudinia, D.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Isfahani, Rahim Dalali

Abstract

Today, debt stabilization in an uncertain environment is an important issue. In particular, the question how fiscal and monetary authorities should deal with this uncertainty is very important. Especially for some developing countries such as Iran, in which on average 60 percent of government revenues comes from oil, and consequently uncertainty about oil prices has a large effect on budget planning, this is an important question. For this reason, we extend in this paper the well-known debt stabilization game introduced by Tabellini (1986). We incorporate deterministic noise into that framework. We solve this extended game under a Non-cooperative, Cooperative and Stackelberg setting assuming a feedback information structure. The main result shows that under all three regimes, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level and this equilibrium level becomes smaller, the more fiscal and monetary authorities are concerned about noise. Furthermore, the best-response policy configuration if policymakers are confronted with uncertainty seems to depend on the level of anticipated uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Engwerda, Jacob & Mahmoudinia, D. & Isfahani, Rahim Dalali, 2016. "Government and Central Bank Interaction under uncertainty : A Differential Games Approach," Discussion Paper 2016-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/11022577/2016_012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Aarle, Bas & Lans Bovenberg, A. & Raith, Matthias G., 1997. "Is there a tragedy of a common central bank? A dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 417-447.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    5. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco Manzo, 2009. "Policy uncertainty, symbiosis, and the optimal fiscal and monetary conservativeness," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 461-474, November.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue fall.
    7. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    8. Douglas Hostland & David Dupuis, "undated". "The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for Medium-Term Fiscal Planning," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-21, Department of Finance Canada.
    9. Bas Aarle & Lans Bovenberg & Matthias Raith, 1995. "Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 111-140, June.
    10. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    11. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
    12. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2003. "Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-247, August.
    13. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    14. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph & Weeren, Arie, 2013. "Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2525-2546.
    15. Mercado, P. Ruben & Kendrick, David A., 2000. "Caution in macroeconomic policy: uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 37-41, July.
    16. Stefan Collignon, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Rules And The Sustainability Of Public Debt In Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 539-567, May.
    17. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401.
    18. Giuli, Francesco, 2010. "Robust Policies In A Sticky Information Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 311-342, June.
    19. Stefan Collignon, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe," RECON Online Working Papers Series 28, RECON.
    20. Reinhard Neck & Jan-Egbert Sturm (ed.), 2008. "Sustainability of Public Debt," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262140985.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:kap:pubcho:v:177:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-018-0584-7 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal and monetary policy interaction; differential game; dynamic system; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:8da07e25-a1e7-4d91-8829-1a152aa1d5f9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Broekman). General contact details of provider: http://center.uvt.nl .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.