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Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Engelmann

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Maël Lebreton

    (University of Geneva)

  • Peter Schwardmann

    (LMU Munich)

  • Joël van der Weele

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Li-Ang Chang

    (CREED - University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

It is widely hypothesized that anxiety and worry about an uncertain future lead to the adoption of comforting beliefs or "wishful thinking". However, there is little direct causal evidence for this effect. In our experiment, participants perform a visual pattern recognition task where some patterns may result in the delivery of an electric shock, a proven way of inducing anxiety. Participants engage in significant wishful thinking, as they are less likely to correctly identify patterns that they know may lead to a shock. Greater ambiguity of the pattern facilitates wishful thinking. Raising incentives for accuracy does not significantly decrease it.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Engelmann & Maël Lebreton & Peter Schwardmann & Joël van der Weele & Li-Ang Chang, 2019. "Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-042/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190042
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Behavioral

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    3. Dean Karlan & Matt Lowe & Robert Darko Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Benjamin N. Roth & Christopher R. Udry, 2022. "Social Protection and Social Distancing During the Pandemic: Mobile Money Transfers in Ghana," NBER Working Papers 30309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Grunewald, Andreas & Klockmann, Victor & von Schenk, Alicia & von Siemens, Ferdinand, 2024. "Are biases contagious? The influence of communication on motivated beliefs," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 109, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Islam, Marco, 2021. "Motivated Risk Assessments," Working Papers 2021:12, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jul 2022.
    7. Felix Chopra & Ingar K. Haaland & Christopher Roth, 2019. "Do People Value More Informative News?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8026, CESifo.
    8. Luc Bridet & Peter Schwardmann, 2020. "Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8271, CESifo.
    9. Dickinson, David L., 2024. "Deliberation, mood response, and the confirmation bias in the religious belief domain," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Thomas Neuber, 2021. "Egocentric Norm Adoption," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 116, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. Roberta Dessi & Junjie Ren & Xiaojian Zhao, 2023. "Shame, Guilt, and Motivated Self-Confidence," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-24, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    12. Victor Augias & Daniel M. A. Barreto, 2020. "Persuading a Wishful Thinker," Papers 2011.13846, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    13. Bolte, Lukas & Fan, Tony Q., 2024. "Motivated mislearning: The case of correlation neglect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 647-663.
    14. Alexander Coutts & Leonie Gerhards & Zahra Murad, 2024. "What to Blame? Self-Serving Attribution Bias with Multi-Dimensional Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 1835-1874.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    confidence; beliefs; anticipatory utility; anxiety; motivated cognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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