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Fear, populism, and the geopolitical landscape: The “sleeper effect” of neurotic personality traits on regional voting behavior in the 2016 Brexit and Trump votes

Author

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  • Obschonka, Martin
  • Stuetzer, Michael
  • Rentfrow, Peter J.
  • Lee, Neil
  • Gosling, Samuel D.
  • Schmitt-Rodermund, Eva

Abstract

Two recent electoral results - Donald Trump’s election as US president and the UK’s Brexit vote - have re-ignited debate on the psychological factors underlying voting behavior. Both campaigns promoted themes of fear, lost pride, and loss aversion, which are relevant to the personality dimension of Neuroticism, a construct previously not associated with voting behavior. To that end, we investigate whether regional prevalence of neurotic personality traits (Neuroticism, Anxiety, Depression) predicted voting behavior in the US (N = 3,167,041) and the UK (N = 417,217), comparing these effects with previous models, which have emphasized the roles of Openness and Conscientiousness. Neurotic traits positively predicted share of Brexit and Trump votes and Trump gains from Romney. Many of these effects persisted in additional robustness tests controlling for regional industrial heritage, political attitude, and socio-economic features, particularly in the US. The “sleeper effect” of neurotic traits may profoundly impact the geopolitical landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Obschonka, Martin & Stuetzer, Michael & Rentfrow, Peter J. & Lee, Neil & Gosling, Samuel D. & Schmitt-Rodermund, Eva, 2018. "Fear, populism, and the geopolitical landscape: The “sleeper effect” of neurotic personality traits on regional voting behavior in the 2016 Brexit and Trump votes," MPRA Paper 88404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Francesco Passarelli, 2019. "Loss Aversion in Politics," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(4), pages 936-947, October.
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    4. Peter J Rentfrow & Markus Jokela & Michael E Lamb, 2015. "Regional Personality Differences in Great Britain," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Obschonka, Martin & Stuetzer, Michael & Peter, Rentfrow & Jeff, Potter & Samuel, Gosling, 2017. "Did Strategic Bombing in the Second World War lead to ‘German Angst’? A large-scale empirical test across 89 German cities," MPRA Paper 83680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon & Majlesi, Kaveh, 2016. "A Note on the Effect of Rising Trade Exposure on the 2016 Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 112889, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2017.
    7. Maurice Schiff, 1997. "Small is Beautiful: Preferential Trade Agreements and the Impact of Country Size, Market Share, and Smuggling," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 359-387.
    8. Obschonka, Martin & Stuetzer, Michael & Rentfrow, Peter J. & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh & Satchell, Max & Silbereisen, Rainer K. & Potter, Jeff & Gosling, Samuel D., 2018. "In the shadow of coal: How large-scale industries contributed to present-day regional differences in personality and well-being," MPRA Paper 89645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan B. Engelmann & Maël Lebreton & Nahuel A. Salem-Garcia & Peter Schwardmann & Joël J. van der Weele, 2024. "Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 926-960, April.
    2. Martin Obschonka & Christian Fisch, 2018. "Entrepreneurial personalities in political leadership," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 851-869, April.
    3. Mitsch, Frieder & Lee, Neil & Morrow, Elizabeth, 2021. "Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110447, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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