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Motivated Beliefs Under Delayed Uncertainty Resolution

Author

Listed:
  • Charlotte Cordes
  • Jana Friedrichsen
  • Simeon Schudy

Abstract

Experimental studies show that individuals update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when their ability is revealed immediately. This paper studies belief updating and the role of motivated memory when feedback is delayed but eventually disclosed. In a longitudinal experiment, participants receive noisy signals about their relative performance in a IQ-related task (Raven matrices) and learn their true rank four weeks later. Across subjects, belief updating is asymmetric: unfavorable signals are weighted less than favorable signals. Further, we identify motivated memory among participants who view the task as ego-relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Cordes & Jana Friedrichsen & Simeon Schudy, 2025. "Motivated Beliefs Under Delayed Uncertainty Resolution," CESifo Working Paper Series 12286, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12286
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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