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Beliefs as a means of self-control? Evidence from a dynamic student survey

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  • König, Tobias
  • Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian
  • Weizsäcker, Georg

Abstract

We repeatedly elicit beliefs about the returns to study effort in a panel survey of students of a large university course. A behavioral model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and malleable beliefs yields the prediction that the dynamics of return beliefs mirrors the importance of exerting self-control, such that return expectations first increase as the exam approaches, and then sharply drop post-exam. Exploiting variation in exam timing to control for common information shocks, we find this prediction confirmed: average subjective expectations of returns increase by about 20% over the period before the exam, and drop by about the same amount afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • König, Tobias & Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2019. "Beliefs as a means of self-control? Evidence from a dynamic student survey," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2019-204, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2019204
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    3. Charlotte Cordes & Jana Friedrichsen & Simeon Schudy, 2025. "Motivated Beliefs Under Delayed Uncertainty Resolution," CESifo Working Paper Series 12286, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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