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Faut-il des règles de politique budgétaire ?

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

En raison de la crise des dettes publiques, les projets visant à instaurer des règles budgétaires sont revenu au premier plan. Le document analyse leurs justifications et les spécifications proposées, dans un cadre néo-classique, puis dans un cadre keynésien. Il n'y a aucune preuve que, au cours de la dernière période, les déficits publics ont été causés par de l’indiscipline fiscale et induit des taux d'intérêt trop élevés. Aucune des règles proposées n’est économiquement satisfaisante, c’est-à-dire capable d’indiquer la politique optimale face à tous les chocs. Le papier propose une analyse des expériences de règles budgétaires, nationales (comme la règle d'or au Royaume-Uni) ou européenne (comme le Pacte de stabilité et de croissance) ; il montre qu'ils n’ont pas fonctionné avant et pendant la crise. La dernière section discute du projet européen, le «nouveau pacte budgétaire », qui risque de paralyser les politiques budgétaires et d'empêcher la stabilisation économique. L'urgence aujourd'hui n'est pas d'augmenter la discipline des finances publiques, mais de remettre en question les évolutions économiques qui rendent les déficits publics nécessaires.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2012-07.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h14g91k
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