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Faut-il des règles de politique budgétaire

En raison de la crise des dettes publiques, les projets visant à instaurer des règles budgétaires sont revenus au premier plan. Le document analyse leurs justifications et les spécifications proposées, dans un cadre néo-classique, puis dans un cadre keynésien. Il n'y a aucune preuve que, au cours de la dernière période, les déficits publics ont été causés par de l’indiscipline fiscale et induit des taux d'intérêt trop élevés. Aucune des règles proposées n’est économiquement satisfaisante, c’est-à-dire capable d’indiquer la politique optimale face à tous les chocs. Le papier propose une analyse des expériences de règles budgétaires, nationales (comme la règle d'or au Royaume-Uni) ou européenne (comme le Pacte de stabilité et de croissance) ; il montre qu'ils n’ont pas fonctionné avant et pendant la crise. La dernière section discute du projet européen, le «nouveau pacte budgétaire », qui risque de paralyser les politiques budgétaires et d'empêcher la stabilisation économique. L'urgence aujourd'hui n'est pas d'augmenter la discipline des finances publiques, mais de remettre en question les évolutions économiques qui rendent les déficits publics nécessaires.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2012-07.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1207
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  1. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2003. "Réformer le pacte de stabilité : l'état du débat," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 84(1), pages 145-179.
  2. Lars Calmfors & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2011. "What should fiscal councils do?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 649-695, October.
  3. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  4. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2011. "Finances publiques, sorties de crise..," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 17-60.
  5. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  6. Yeva S. Nersisyan & L. Randall Wray, 2011. "Un excès de dette publique handicape-t-il réellement la croissance ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 173-190.
  7. Hasan Doluca & Malte Hübner & Dominik Rumpf & Benjamin Weigert, 2013. "The European Redemption Pact. An illustrative guide," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 341-367.
  8. Charles Wyplosz, 2011. "Fiscal Discipline: Rules Rather than Institutions," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages R19-R30, July.
  9. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2009. "La globalisation financière en crise," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  10. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
  11. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2008," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 64 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou, 6.
  12. Allen Schick, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Rules: Stabilising Public Finance while Responding to Economic Aftershocks," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
  13. Eisner, Robert, 1989. "Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 73-93, Spring.
  14. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2003. "Réformer le Pacte de stabilité : l’état du débat," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1783, Sciences Po.
  15. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "A Fragile Eurozone in Search of a Better Governance," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 1–30.
  16. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 403-14, July.
  17. Charles Wyplosz, 2012. "Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences," NBER Working Papers 17884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lars Calmfors, 2012. "Can the Eurozone Develop into a Well-functioning Fiscal Union?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 10-16, 04.
  19. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et taux d'intérêt," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 95(4), pages 243-277.
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