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A Direct Test of the Homevoter Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Carolyn A. Dehring

    (Department of Insurance, Legal Studies and Real Estate, The University of Georgia)

  • Craig A. Depken, II

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington)

  • Michael R. Ward

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington)

Abstract

We propose a methodology that facilitates a direct test of the homevoter hypothesis, which posits that homeowner/voter support for a public good project is positively related to the project’s expected effect on property values. First, we estimate how events that indicate an increasing probability that the public good project will be undertaken impact local residential property values before the referendum is held. These pre-vote impacts are considered noisy signals to homeowners about the market’s assessment of the net marginal benefits of the project. Second, we aggregate these market signals to the precinct level and relate them to precinct-level voting results concerning the proposed project. We apply this method to the 2004 referendum in Arlington, Texas, concerning a publicly subsidized stadium to host the NFL Dallas Cowboys. The analysis supports the homevoter hypothesis and establishes a possible methodology for future evaluations in this small but growing empirical literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolyn A. Dehring & Craig A. Depken, II & Michael R. Ward, 2007. "A Direct Test of the Homevoter Hypothesis," Working Papers 0719, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0719
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    JEL classification:

    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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