IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects


  • Ivelin Elenchev
  • Aleksandar Vasilev

    (Centre for Economic Theories and Policies, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski)


The present paper develops three models that help predict the success rate and attainable investment levels of online crowdfunding ventures. This is done by applying standard economic theory and machine learning techniques from computer science to the novel sector of online crowd-based micro-financing. In contrast with previous research in the area, this paper analyzes transaction-level data in addition to information about completed crowdfunding projects. This provides an unique perspective in the ways crowdfinance ventures develop. The models reach an average of 83% accuracy in predicting the outcome of a crowdfunding campaign at any point throughout its duration. These fundings prove that a number of product and project specific parameters are indicative of the success of the venture. Subsequently, the paper provides guidance to capital seekers and investors on the basis of these criteria, and allows participants in the crowdfunding marketplace to make more rational decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivelin Elenchev & Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2017-09, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Nov 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-09

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Parker, Simon C., 2014. "Crowdfunding, cascades and informed investors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 432-435.
    2. Belleflamme, Paul & Omrani, Nessrine & Peitz, Martin, 2015. "The economics of crowdfunding platforms," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 11-28.
    3. Paolo Crosetto & Tobias Regner, 2014. "Crowdfunding: Determinants of success and funding dynamics," Jena Economic Research Papers 2014-035, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Gilles Chemla & Katrin Tinn, 2020. "Learning Through Crowdfunding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1783-1801, May.
    5. Moleskis, Melina & Canela, Miguel Ángel, 2016. "Crowdfunding Success: The Case Of Kiva.Org," IESE Research Papers D/1137, IESE Business School.
    6. Roland Strausz, 2017. "A Theory of Crowdfunding: A Mechanism Design Approach with Demand Uncertainty and Moral Hazard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1430-1476, June.
    7. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    8. Matthew Ellman & Sjaak Hurkens, 2014. "Optimal Crowdfunding Design," Working Papers 14-21, NET Institute.
    9. Gordon Burtch & Anindya Ghose & Sunil Wattal, 2013. "An Empirical Examination of the Antecedents and Consequences of Contribution Patterns in Crowd-Funded Markets," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 499-519, September.
    10. Blaseg, Daniel & Koetter, Michael, 2015. "Friend or Foe? Crowdfunding Versus Credit when Banks are Stressed," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Ming Hu & Xi Li & Mengze Shi, 2015. "Product and Pricing Decisions in Crowdfunding," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 331-345, May.
    12. Rubinton, Brian J, 2011. "Crowdfunding: disintermediated investment banking," MPRA Paper 31649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Maria Lucia Passador, 2015. "Crowdfunding: among Suitability and Appropriateness Rules and its Applicability to Capital Increase Operations," Banca Impresa Società, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 287-332.
    14. BELLEFLAMME, Paul & LAMBERT, Thomas & SCHWIENBACHER, Armin, 2011. "Crowdfunding: tapping the right crowd," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. Eleftheria Vasileiadou & Boukje Huijben & Rob Raven, 2014. "Crowdfunding niches? Exploring the potential of crowdfunding for financing renewable energy niches in the Netherlands," Working Papers 14-11, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Nov 2014.
    16. Zhuoxin Li & Jason A. Duan, 2014. "Dynamic Strategies for Successful Online Crowdfunding," Working Papers 14-09, NET Institute.
    17. Bargain, Olivier & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Vignolles, Alexandra, 2016. "Crowdfunding in Wine," Working Papers 234638, American Association of Wine Economists.
    18. Ajay K. Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2011. "The Geography of Crowdfunding," NBER Working Papers 16820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Mingfeng Lin & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Siva Viswanathan, 2013. "Judging Borrowers by the Company They Keep: Friendship Networks and Information Asymmetry in Online Peer-to-Peer Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 17-35, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Ryoba & Shaojian Qu & Yongyi Zhou, 2021. "Feature subset selection for predicting the success of crowdfunding project campaigns," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 31(3), pages 671-684, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felipe, Israel José dos Santos & Mendes-Da-Silva, Wesley & Leal, Cristiana Cerqueira & Braun Santos, Danilo, 2022. "Reward crowdfunding campaigns: Time-to-success analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 214-228.
    2. Viotto da Cruz, Jordana, 2018. "Beyond financing: crowdfunding as an informational mechanism," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 371-393.
    3. Boudreau, Kevin J. & Jeppesen, Lars Bo & Reichstein, Toke & Rullani, Francesco, 2021. "Crowdfunding as Donations to Entrepreneurial Firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Sha Zhou & Tao Ma & Zhengchi Liu, 2021. "Crowdfunding as a screener for collective investment," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 195-221, March.
    5. BELLEFLAMME Paul, & LAMBERT Thomas, & SCHWIENBACHER Armin,, 2019. "Crowdfunding dynamics," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2019014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Hans Peter Grüner & Christoph Siemroth, 2019. "Crowdfunding, Efficiency, and Inequality," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1393-1427.
    7. Ellman, Matthew & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2019. "Optimal crowdfunding design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Crosetto, Paolo & Regner, Tobias, 2018. "It's never too late: Funding dynamics and self pledges in reward-based crowdfunding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1463-1477.
    9. Kazem Mochkabadi & Christine K. Volkmann, 2020. "Equity crowdfunding: a systematic review of the literature," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 75-118, January.
    10. Belleflamme, Paul & Omrani, Nessrine & Peitz, Martin, 2015. "The economics of crowdfunding platforms," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 11-28.
    11. Matthew Ellman & Sjaak Hurkens, 2014. "Optimal Crowdfunding Design," Working Papers 14-21, NET Institute.
    12. Hossain Mokter & Oparaocha Gospel Onyema, 2017. "Crowdfunding: Motives, Definitions, Typology and Ethical Challenges," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Gary Dushnitsky & Evila Piva & Cristina Rossi‐Lamastra, 2022. "Investigating the mix of strategic choices and performance of transaction platforms: Evidence from the crowdfunding setting," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 563-598, March.
    14. Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio & Natalicchio, Angelo & Panniello, Umberto & Roma, Paolo, 2019. "Understanding the crowdfunding phenomenon and its implications for sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 138-148.
    15. Silvio Vismara, 2018. "Information Cascades among Investors in Equity Crowdfunding," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 42(3), pages 467-497, May.
    16. Mäschle, Oliver & Dalvai, Wilfried, 2016. "Rationing and screening in crowdinvesting-markets," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 142, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    17. Besancenot, Damien & Vranceanu, Radu, 2018. "Crowdfunding with overenthusiastic investors : a global game model," ESSEC Working Papers WP1802, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    18. Jung, Eunjun & Lee, Changjun & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "Effective strategies to attract crowdfunding investment based on the novelty of business ideas," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Johannes Wallmeroth & Peter Wirtz & Alexander Groh, 2017. "Institutional Seed Financing, Angel Financing, and Crowdfunding of Entrepreneurial Ventures: A Literature Review," Working Papers hal-01527999, HAL.
    20. Thomas Clauss & Thomas Niemand & Sascha Kraus & Patrick Schnetzer & Alexander Brem, 2019. "Increasing Crowdfunding Success Through Social Media: The Importance Of Reach And Utilisation In Reward-Based Crowdfunding," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(03), pages 1-30, May.

    More about this item


    microfinance; entrepreneur finance; crowdfunding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof. Teodor Sedlarski (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.