IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/nzierw/2013_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Lees, Kirdan

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

New Zealand is ageing. The number of old people will increase three-fold and will soon comprise a very large segment of society. Ageing will shrink the labour supply relative to the size of the population and the existing supply of capital. That has implications for wages and interest rates. Increased longevity should also affect savings decisions and labour force participation. In this paper we model these changes to put some numbers on their impact. While the population is ageing gradually, the impact on the mix of labour and capital that fuels the economy will be profound.

Suggested Citation

  • Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy," NZIER Working Paper 2013/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nzierw:2013_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nzier.org.nz/publications/water-management-in-new-zealand-a-road-map-for-understanding-water-value-nzier-public-discussion-paper-201401
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Gang Liu, 2011. "Measuring the Stock of Human Capital for Comparative Analysis: An Application of the Lifetime Income Approach to Selected Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2011/6, OECD Publishing.
    3. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11049 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Barbara Hanel & Regina Riphahn, 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 009, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    6. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 241-261, March.
    7. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1989. "What Determines Savings?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262611872, December.
    8. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    9. Barbara Hanel & Regina Riphahn, 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 009, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    10. Emma Gorman & Grant M Scobie & Andy Towers, 2012. "Health and Retirement of Older New Zealanders," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    2. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    3. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    4. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lixin Cai, 2015. "The dynamics of low pay employment in Australia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(7), pages 1095-1123, October.
    6. Apouey, Bénédicte H. & Guven, Cahit & Senik, Claudia, 2019. "Retirement and Unexpected Health Shocks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 116-123.
    7. Sarah Brown & Mark N Harris & Jake Prendergast & Preety Srivastava, 2015. "Pharmaceutical Drug Misuse, Industry of Employment and Occupation," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1501, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    8. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Collard, Fabrice, 2011. "Age Groups and the Measure of Population Aging," LERNA Working Papers 11.05.339, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    9. Ruben Bibas & C. Cassen & Renaud Crassous & Céline Guivarch & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Jean Charles Hourcade & Florian Leblanc & Aurélie Méjean & Eoin Ó Broin & Julie Rozenberg & Olivier Sassi & Adrien V, 2022. "IMpact Assessment of CLIMate policies with IMACLIM-R 1.1. Model documentation version 1.1," Working Papers hal-03702627, HAL.
    10. Dominik Stroukal, 2016. "A longitudinal analysis of the effect of unemployment on health," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 55-68, June.
    11. Joan Costa-Font & Paola Giuliano & Berkay Ozcan, 2018. "The cultural origin of saving behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-10, September.
    12. Rocha, Roberto & Vittas, Dimitri, 2001. "Pension reform in Hungary : a preliminary assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2631, The World Bank.
    13. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Emmanuel Duguet & Christine Le Clainche, 2020. "The Socioeconomic and Gender Impacts of Health Events on Employment Transitions in France: A Panel Data Study," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 449-483.
    15. Umut Oguzoglu, 2010. "Dynamics of work limitation and work in Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 656-669, June.
    16. Apergis, Nicholas & Mustafa, Ghulam & Dastidar, Sayantan Ghosh, 2021. "An analysis of the impact of unconventional oil and gas activities on public health: New evidence across Oklahoma counties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    17. Ovikuomagbe Oyedele & Sheriffdeen Adewale Tella, 2023. "Examining the Dynamics of Labour Force Participation, Carbon Dioxide Emission and Population Health in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 382-393, September.
    18. Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 1998. "Household Savings in Transition Economies," NBER Working Papers 6457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sime Smolic & Ivan Cipin & Petra Medimurec, 2020. "How is health associated with employment during later working life in Croatia?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(1), pages 99-116.
    20. Veronesi, Marcella, 2007. "Environmental Risk Factors, Health and the Labor Market Response of Married Men and Women in the United States," Working Papers 98552, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    21. Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio & Molina, Jose Alberto, 2015. "Health status and the allocation of time: Cross-country evidence from Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 188-203.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; New Zealand; demographics; labour force participation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:nzierw:2013_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Spring (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nziernz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.