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Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy

Author

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  • Lees, Kirdan

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

New Zealand is ageing. The number of old people will increase three-fold and will soon comprise a very large segment of society. Ageing will shrink the labour supply relative to the size of the population and the existing supply of capital. That has implications for wages and interest rates. Increased longevity should also affect savings decisions and labour force participation. In this paper we model these changes to put some numbers on their impact. While the population is ageing gradually, the impact on the mix of labour and capital that fuels the economy will be profound.

Suggested Citation

  • Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy," NZIER Working Paper 2013/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:nzierw:2013_001
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    File URL: http://nzier.org.nz/publication/golden-years-the-impacts-of-new-zealands-ageing-on-wages-interest-rates-wealth-and-macroeconomy-nzier-working-paper-20131
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Gang Liu, 2011. "Measuring the Stock of Human Capital for Comparative Analysis: An Application of the Lifetime Income Approach to Selected Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2011/6, OECD Publishing.
    3. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
    4. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 2492, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Emma Gorman & Grant M Scobie & Andy Towers, 2012. "Health and Retirement of Older New Zealanders," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 241-261.
    7. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; New Zealand; demographics; labour force participation;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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