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Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Harahap, Berry

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Bary, Pakasa

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Panjaitan, Linda

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Satyanugroho, Redianto

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of certain external shocks originating from the US and the PRC on Indonesia as a small open economy. The spillover effects of tapering off, an interest rate hike, exchange rate devaluation, and real gross domestic product (GDP) are analyzed. Two versions of the global vector autoregression model are employed, which covers 33 countries and considers both financial and trade relations among countries. Spillover assessments are conducted through impulse responses with 1,000 bootstrap replications, and compared to the responses of peer countries. The results suggest that the main risk for Indonesia’s real GDP is a shock to the PRC's real GDP, while a US interest rate hike is the greatest risk to Indonesia’s exchange rate depreciation in the short term, especially compared to the US tapering off. Moreover, the dominant transmission channel of US monetary tightening is through finance, dampening economic growth in small open economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Harahap, Berry & Bary, Pakasa & Panjaitan, Linda & Satyanugroho, Redianto, 2016. "Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia," ADBI Working Papers 616, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0616
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Lavigne & Subrata Sarker & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 23-33.
    2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 2010. "The international transmission of interest rate shocks: The Federal Reserve and emerging markets in Latin America and Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 685-703, June.
    5. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    6. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    7. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    8. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2018. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 545-563, March.
    9. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:97-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Druck, Pablo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Mariscal, Rodrigo, 2018. "Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-117.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine, Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; small open economies; tapering off; interest rate hike; exchange rate devaluation; real GDP; US; PRC; Indonesia;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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