What Is the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Banking System in East Asia?
The paper analyzes the risks in the banking systems in East Asia using the standard supervisory framework, which assesses capital adequacy, asset quality, management, earnings, and liquidity (CAMEL), and finds that banking systems in the region are sound, but that the short-term outlook is negative. Second, it reviews the measures introduced in Asian countries to support their banking systems. The main bank support measures—direct capital support, removal and guarantees of bad assets, direct liquidity support, and guarantees for banks' existing or newly issued obligations—might be necessary to ensure stability, but they need to be handled carefully to prevent long-term distortions. It remains to be seen whether Asian policymakers will manage skillfully the lifting of bank support measures. Third, the paper conducts stress tests of the banking systems. The stress tests indicate that the largest banking systems in East Asia have a total of almost US$1.2 trillion in Tier 1 capital and a possible shortfall of US$758 billion. Fourth, it assesses the implications for liquidity of the increase in international banking flows and finds that the banking system in the Republic of Korea appears vulnerable to a reversal of capital flows. Fifth, the paper explores the implications of the crisis for credit formation, assessing whether nonbank financial institutions in the region have the capacity to provide sufficient liquidity. The author concludes that they do not. The paper ends with a brief assessment of the impact of the crisis on the corporate sector, concluding that the effects of the crisis are likely to be significant but manageable.
|Date of creation:||19 Aug 2009|
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