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Some economic historic perspectives on the 2009 world trade collapse

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  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G.

Abstract

The paper puts the collapse of the world trade volume in 2009 into two historic perspectives. First, the paper analyses 18 major post-1980 / pre-2007 financial crises and uses these observations as a basis to critically evaluate presently available projections for world trade. Second, the paper takes into account the developments in the world's trade volume and openness since 1880. Next to the direct impact of the present financial crisis on trade, potential second order effects on economic growth and international political relations are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2009. "Some economic historic perspectives on the 2009 world trade collapse," ISS Working Papers - General Series 476, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:18717
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    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/18717/wp476.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    3. Hong, Kiseok & Lee, Jong-Wha & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2010. "Crises in Asia: Historical perspectives and implications," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 265-279, June.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    5. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade's Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    6. Fingerand, K. Michael & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Trade, finance and financial crises," WTO Special Studies, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division, volume 3, number 3.
    7. Auboin, Marc & Meier-Ewert, Moritz, 2003. "Improving the availability of trade finance during financial crises," WTO Discussion Papers 2, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. Michele Fratianni & Heejoon Kang, 2006. "International Terrorism, International Trade, and Borders," Working Papers 2006-13, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    9. Alun H. Thomas, 2009. "Financial Crises and Emerging Market Trade," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/04, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Summary, Rebecca M, 1989. "A Political-Economic Model of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 179-182, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    depression; financial crisis; import crunch; trade and conflict; world trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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