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Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch

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  • Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Abstract

Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse. Copyright 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 479-487, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:62:y:2009:i:4:p:479-487
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hong, Kiseok & Lee, Jong-Wha & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2010. "Crises in Asia: Historical perspectives and implications," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 265-279, June.
    2. World Bank, 2009. "Global Economic Prospects 2009 : Commodities at the Crossroads," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2581.
    3. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade's Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    4. Fingerand, K. Michael & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Trade, finance and financial crises," WTO Special Studies, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division, volume 3, number 3.
    5. Auboin, Marc & Meier-Ewert, Moritz, 2003. "Improving the availability of trade finance during financial crises," WTO Discussion Papers 2, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2015. "The heterogeneity of world trade collapses," ISS Working Papers - General Series 606, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2011. "One is not enough!," ISS Working Papers - General Series 22964, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.

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