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Regional Shocks, Migration and Homeownership

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  • Florian Oswald

    (UCL)

Abstract

This paper estimates a lifecycle model of consumption, housing choice and migration in the presence of aggregate and regional shocks, using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Using the model I estimate the value of the migration option and the welfare impact of policies that may restrict mobility. The option to move is equivalent to 4.4% of lifetime consumption. I also find that, were the mortgage interest-rate deduction to be eliminated, the aggregate migration rate would increase only marginally by 0.1%. Following a general equilibrium correction, house prices are reduced by 5%, which results in a 1% increase in home ownership. In a new steady state the elimination of the deduction is equivalent to an increase of 2.4% of lifecycle consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Oswald, 2015. "Regional Shocks, Migration and Homeownership," 2015 Meeting Papers 759, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2013. "Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 19079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giulio Fella, 2011. "A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Non-concave Problems," Working Papers 677, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Yuliya Demyanyk & Dmytro Hryshko & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2017. "Moving to a Job: The Role of Home Equity, Debt, and Access to Credit," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 149-181, April.
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    5. Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. "Negative equity does not reduce homeowners’ mobility," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Feb, pages 1-17.
    6. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
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    8. Suphanit Piyapromdee, 2017. "The Impact of Immigration on Wages, Internal Migration and Welfare," PIER Discussion Papers 69, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2017.
    9. Orazio Attanasio & Renata Bottazzi & Hamish Low & Lars Nesheim & Matthew Wakefield, 2012. "Modelling the Demand for Housing over the Lifecycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2014. "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 345-366, April.
    11. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    12. Florian Oswald & Costas Meghir & Wenli Li, 2017. "Consumer Bankruptcy and Mortgage Default," 2017 Meeting Papers 1260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Oswald Andrew J., 1996. "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialized Nations : Part I," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Hernan Winkler, 2011. "The Effect of Homeownership on Geographic Mobility and Labor Market Outcomes," 2011 Meeting Papers 196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
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