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Modelling the Demand for Housing over the Lifecycle

Author

Listed:
  • Orazio Attanasio

    (University College London)

  • Renata Bottazzi

    (University of Bologna)

  • Hamish Low

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Lars Nesheim

    (University College London)

  • Matthew Wakefield

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

This paper models individual demand for housing over the life-cycle, and shows the implications of this behaviour for aggregate demand. Individuals delay purchasing their first home when incomes are low or uncertain. This delay is exacerbated by downpayment constraints. Higher house prices lead households to downsize, rather than to stop being home-owners. In aggregate, positive house price shocks lead to consumption booms among the old and a fall in aggregate demand for housing, whereas positive income shocks lead to consumption booms among the young and a rise in aggregate demand for housing. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Orazio Attanasio & Renata Bottazzi & Hamish Low & Lars Nesheim & Matthew Wakefield, 2012. "Modelling the Demand for Housing over the Lifecycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:10-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orazio Attanasio & Andrew Leicester & Matthew Wakefield, 2011. "Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth? The Coincident Cycles Of House Prices And Consumption In The Uk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 399-435, June.
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    12. Renata Bottazzi & Hamish Low & Matthew Wakefield, 2007. "Why do home owners work longer hours?," IFS Working Papers W07/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. James Banks & Sarah Smith, 2006. "Retirement in the UK," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 40-56, Spring.
    14. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
    15. James Banks & Zoe Oldfield & Matthew Wakefield, 2002. "The distribution of financial wealth in the UK: evidence from 2000 BHPS data," IFS Working Papers W02/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    17. R. Bottazzi & T. Crossley & M. Wakefield, 2011. "House Prices and Home Ownership: a Cohort Analysis," Working Papers wp790, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    18. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnes Kovacs, 2016. "Present Bias, Temptation and Commitment Over the Life-Cycle: Estimating and Simulating Gul-Pesendorfer Preferences," Economics Series Working Papers 796, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Sule Alan & Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low, 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1212, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Anastasia Girshina, 2016. "Implications of Fiscal Policy for Housing Tenure Decisions," Working Papers 2014:, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Justin Van de Ven, 2016. "Parameterising the LINDA microsimulation model of benefit unit savings and labour supply," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 464, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Justin van de Ven, 2016. "LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 459, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Florian Oswald, 2015. "Regional Shocks, Migration and Homeownership," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/n1d9kd7k48k, Sciences Po.
    7. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    8. Ömer ALKAN & Abdulkerim KARAASLAN & Hayri ABAR & Ali Kemal ÇELIK & Erkan OKTAY, 2014. "Factors Affecting Motives For Housing Demand: The Case Of A Turkish Province," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 70-86, August.
    9. Druedahl, Jeppe & Martinello, Alessandro, 2016. "Long-Run Saving Dynamics: Evidence from Unexpected Inheritances," Working Papers 2016:7, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 08 May 2018.
    10. Florian Oswald, 2015. "Regional Shocks, Migration and Homeownership," 2015 Meeting Papers 759, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Viola Angelini & Agar Brugiavini & Guglielmo Weber, 2014. "The dynamics of homeownership among the 50+ in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 797-823, July.
    12. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Wagner, Sebastian, 2015. "Housing habits and their implications for life-cycle consumption and investment," SAFE Working Paper Series 85, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    13. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    14. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    15. Zhechun He, 2017. "Housing and Financial Asset Allocations of Heterogeneous Homeowners," Discussion Papers 17/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Abuzer Pinar & Murat Demir, 2016. "The Impact of Social Housing Program on the Demand for Housing in Turkey: A Cross-Section Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 20-28, November.
    17. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Helble, Matthias & Aizawa, Toshiaki, 2015. "Housing Policies for Asia: A Theoretical Analysis by Use of a Demand and Supply Model," ADBI Working Papers 526, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    18. Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "Reforming housing rental market in a life-cycle model," Working Papers 2017-028, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    19. repec:bla:revurb:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:103-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Agarwal, Sumit & Hu, Luojia & Huang, Xing, 2013. "Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer Credit," Working Paper Series WP-2013-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. repec:ijm:journl:v109:y:2017:i:1:p:135-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:1:p:135-166 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Uncertainty; Credit constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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