IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed006/39.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Response of Prices, Sales, and Output to Temporary Changes in Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Copeland
  • George Hall

    (Department of Economics Brandeis University)

Abstract

We determine empirically how the Big Three automakers accommodate shocks to demand. They have the capability to change prices, alter labor inputs through temporary layoffs and overtime, or adjust inventories. These adjustments are interrelated, non-convex, and dynamic in nature. Combining weekly plant-level data on production schedules and output with monthly data on sales and transaction prices, we estimate a dynamic profit-maximization model of the firm. Using impulse response functions, we demonstrate that when an automaker is hit with a demand shock sales respond immediately, prices respond gradually, and production responds only after a delay. The size of the immediate sales response is linear in the size of the shock, but the delayed production response is non-convex in the size of the shock. For sufficiently large shocks the cumulative production response over the product cycle is an order of magnitude larger than the cumulative price response. We examine two recent demand shocks: the Ford Explorer/Firestone tire recall of 2000, and the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Copeland & George Hall, 2006. "The Response of Prices, Sales, and Output to Temporary Changes in Demand," 2006 Meeting Papers 39, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2006/paper_39.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haltiwanger, John C & Maccini, Louis J, 1988. "A Model of Inventory and Layoff Behaviour under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 731-745, September.
    2. Adam Copeland & Wendy E. Dunn & George J. Hall, 2005. "Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308.
    4. Galeotti, Marzio & Maccini, Louis J. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2005. "Inventories, employment and hours," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 575-600, April.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    6. James Levinsohn & Steven Berry & Ariel Pakes, 1999. "Voluntary Export Restraints on Automobiles: Evaluating a Trade Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 400-430, June.
    7. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    8. Godley, Wynne A H & Nordhaus, William D, 1972. "Pricing in the Trade Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 853-882, September.
    9. Anderson, Patricia M & Meyer, Bruce D, 1993. "Unemployment Insurance in the United States: Layoff Incentives and Cross Subsidies," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 70-95, January.
    10. Rossana, Robert J, 1990. "Interrelated Demands for Buffer Stocks and Productive Inputs: Estimates for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 19-29, February.
    11. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    12. Maccini, Louis J & Rossana, Robert J, 1984. "Joint Production, Quasi-Fixed Factors of Production, and Investement in Finished Goods Inventories," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 218-236, May.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    14. Patricia B. Reagan, 1982. "Inventory and Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(1), pages 137-142.
    15. Hall, George J., 2000. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
    16. Wedad Elmaghraby & P{i}nar Keskinocak, 2003. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Inventory Considerations: Research Overview, Current Practices, and Future Directions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1287-1309, October.
    17. Awi Federgruen & Aliza Heching, 1999. "Combined Pricing and Inventory Control Under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 454-475, June.
    18. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
    19. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1989. "Labor Demand and the Structure of Adjustment Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 674-689, September.
    21. Topel, Robert H, 1982. "Inventories, Layoffs, and the Short-Run Demand for Labor," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 769-787, September.
    22. Carol Corrado & Wendy E. Dunn & Maria Ward Otoo, 2006. "Incentives and prices for motor vehicles: what has been happening in recent years?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    24. Haltiwanger, John C. & Maccini, Louis J., 1989. "Inventories, orders, temporary and permanent layoffs: An econometric analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 301-366, January.
    25. Hay, George A, 1970. "Production, Price, and Inventory Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 531-545, September.
    26. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    27. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 593-624.
    28. John Rust & Hui Man Chan & George Hall, 2004. "Price Discrimination in the Steel Market," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 245, Econometric Society.
    29. T. M. Whitin, 1955. "Inventory Control and Price Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 61-68, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kristiaan Kerstens & Ignace Van de Woestyne, 2021. "Cost functions are nonconvex in the outputs when the technology is nonconvex: convexification is not harmless," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 81-106, October.
    2. Caio Machado, 2024. "Coordinating in Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    3. Antoniades, Alexis & Clerides, Sofronis & Xu, Mingzhi, 2023. "Multi-product firm price and variety response to firm-specific cost shocks," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Priscila Silva & Mariana Hidalgo & Mindy Hotchkiss & Lasitha Dharmasena & Igor Linkov & Lance Fiondella, 2024. "Predictive Resilience Modeling Using Statistical Regression Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-30, July.
    5. Adam Copeland & James A. Kahn, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through, markups, and inventories," Staff Reports 584, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. McManus, Walter, 2007. "The link between gasoline prices and vehicle sales:economic theory trumps conventional Detroit wisdom," MPRA Paper 3463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Florian Zettelmeyer & Fiona Scott Morton & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2006. "Scarcity Rents in Car Retailing: Evidence from Inventory Fluctuations at Dealerships," NBER Working Papers 12177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ayelet Israeli & Fiona Scott-Morton & Jorge Silva-Risso & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2022. "How Market Power Affects Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Inventory Fluctuations at Car Dealerships," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 895-916, February.
    9. Latino, Carmelo & Pelizzon, Loriana & Riedel, Max, 2023. "How to green the European Auto ABS market? A literature survey," SAFE Working Paper Series 391, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Robert L. Bray & Haim Mendelson, 2015. "Production Smoothing and the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 208-220, May.
    11. Adam Copeland & George Hall & Louis J. Maccini, 2019. "Interest Rates and the Market for New Light Vehicles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1137-1168, August.
    12. Adam Copeland & James Kahn, 2013. "The Production Impact Of “Cash-For-Clunkers”: Implications For Stabilization Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 288-303, January.
    13. Nils Gottfries & Glenn Mickelsson & Karolina Stadin, 2021. "Deep Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8873, CESifo.
    14. Adam Copeland, 2014. "Intertemporal substitution and new car purchases," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(3), pages 624-644, September.
    15. Chuang, Chia-Hung & Zhao, Yabing, 2019. "Demand stimulation in finished-goods inventory management: Empirical evidence from General Motors dealerships," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 208-220.
    16. Friberg, Richard & Huse, Cristian, 2012. "How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production," CEPR Discussion Papers 9266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Robert G. Hammond, 2013. "Sudden Unintended Used‐Price Deceleration? The 2009–2010 Toyota Recalls," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 78-100, March.
    18. Šustek, Roman, 2011. "Plant-level nonconvex output adjustment and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 400-414.
    19. James Kahn & Adam Copeland, 2012. "Durable Goods Production and Inventory Dynamics: An Application to the Automobile Industry," 2012 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Copeland & Wendy E. Dunn & George J. Hall, 2005. "Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
    3. Galeotti, Marzio & Maccini, Louis J. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2005. "Inventories, employment and hours," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 575-600, April.
    4. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    5. Graddy, Kathryn & Hall, George, 2011. "A dynamic model of price discrimination and inventory management at the Fulton Fish Market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 6-19.
    6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Maccini, Louis J., 1995. "Measuring noise in inventory models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-89, August.
    7. Adam Copeland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Automobile Expenditures," 2008 Meeting Papers 852, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Hall, George J., 2000. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
    9. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1303-1327, December.
    10. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    11. George J. Hall, 1996. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: a study of production and inventories at automobile assembly plants," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Qi Feng & Sirong Luo & J. George Shanthikumar, 2020. "Integrating Dynamic Pricing with Inventory Decisions Under Lost Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 2232-2247, May.
    13. Adam Copeland, 2014. "Intertemporal substitution and new car purchases," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(3), pages 624-644, September.
    14. Hall, George & Rust, John, 2000. "An empirical model of inventory investment by durable commodity intermediaries," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 171-214, June.
    15. Zheng Shi & Zheng Wen, 2014. "Optimal Sales Discount Decision Model with Fixed Ordered Quantities," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 345-357, August.
    16. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    17. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Charles A. Fleischman, 1996. "The endogeneity of employment adjustment costs: the tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December.
    20. Xin Chen & Sean X. Zhou & Youhua (Frank) Chen, 2011. "Integration of Inventory and Pricing Decisions with Costly Price Adjustments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1144-1158, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automobile pricing; inventories; revenue management; indirect inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed006:39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.