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Alcohol and Short-Run Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition

Author

Listed:
  • Barron, Kai

    (WZB Berlin)

  • Bradshaw, Debbie

    (SAMRC and University of Cape Town)

  • Parry, Charles D. H.

    (SAMRC and Stellenbosch University)

  • Dorrington, Rob

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Groenewald, Pam

    (SAMRC)

  • Laubscher, Ria

    (SAMRC)

  • Matzopoulos, Richard

    (SAMRC and University of Cape Town)

Abstract

On July 13, 2020 a complete nation-wide ban was placed on the sale and transport of alcohol in South Africa. This paper evaluates the impact of this sudden and unexpected five-week alcohol prohibition on mortality due to unnatural causes. We find that the policy reduced the number of unnatural deaths by 21 per day, or approximately 740 over the five-week period. This constitutes a 14% decrease in the total number of deaths due to unnatural causes. We argue that this represents a lower bound on the impact of alcohol on short-run mortality, and underscores the severe influence that alcohol has on society—even in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Barron, Kai & Bradshaw, Debbie & Parry, Charles D. H. & Dorrington, Rob & Groenewald, Pam & Laubscher, Ria & Matzopoulos, Richard, 2021. "Alcohol and Short-Run Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 273, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:273
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    alcohol; mortality; economics; health; South Africa; COVID-19; violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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