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The labour market and poverty impacts of COVID‐19 in South Africa

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  • Ihsaan Bassier
  • Joshua Budlender
  • Rocco Zizzamia
  • Ronak Jain

Abstract

We estimate COVID‐19‐related employment and poverty impacts in South Africa. We observe a 40% decline in active employment between February and April 2020, half of which was composed of job terminations rather than furloughs. Initially, vulnerable groups were disproportionately affected by the labour market shock. Exploiting the dataset's panel dimension and comparing lockdown incomes of job losers to reweighted job retainers, we estimate that approximately 15%–35% of job losers fell into poverty in April. We find evidence of a limited recovery in the labour market and a decrease in poverty by June, in part attributable to expanded emergency social assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihsaan Bassier & Joshua Budlender & Rocco Zizzamia & Ronak Jain, 2023. "The labour market and poverty impacts of COVID‐19 in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(4), pages 419-445, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:91:y:2023:i:4:p:419-445
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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