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The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ronak Jain
  • Joshua Budlender
  • Rocco Zizzamia
  • Ihsaan Bassier

Abstract

We use newly-released South African data to present the first estimates of COVID-19-related employment and poverty impacts in a developing country. We observe a 40% decline in active employment. Half of this comprises job termina¬tions, suggesting persistent labor market effects. Initially vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected. Exploiting the dataset’s panel dimension and compar¬ing lockdown incomes of job losers to re-weighted job retainers, we estimate that 20-33% of job losers fall into poverty. Only 20% of those temporarily not working received the intended relief, while a third of job losers had no access to any major form of social protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronak Jain & Joshua Budlender & Rocco Zizzamia & Ihsaan Bassier, 2020. "The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2020-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
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    4. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
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    6. Bassier, Ihsaan & Budlender, Joshua & Zizzamia, Rocco & Leibbrandt, Murray & Ranchhod, Vimal, 2021. "Locked down and locked out: Repurposing social assistance as emergency relief to informal workers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

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