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Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion

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Abstract

Despite recent theoretical literature highlighting the cross effects between preferential trade agreements (PTAs), like the domino effect and the competitive liberalization theory, little has been done to quantify their impact on bilateral trade flows. This paper investigates how preexisting PTAs dilute (shield) the trade creation (diversion) effect of new PTAs. Countries having pre-existing PTAs enjoy smaller gains in intra-bloc trade because of the dilution effect, and experience smaller losses or even gains in extra-bloc trade because of the shielding effect. The findings support the proposition that PTAs could be used to fend off future trade diversion.

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  • Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2014. "Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion," Discussion Papers Series 500, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:500
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheong Juyoung & Takayama Shino, 2016. "A Trade and Welfare Analysis of Tariff Changes Within the TPP," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 477-511, January.
    2. Prasetyono, Pipin & Wibowo, Agung, 2016. "Should Indonesia join the Trans-Pacific Partnership?," MPRA Paper 97786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2020. "Trade Elasticity: Estimates From Product-Level Data," Discussion Papers Series 616, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Welfare effects of TTIP in a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 230-238.
    5. Cheong, Juyoung & Kwak, Do Won & Tang, Kam Ki, 2018. "The trade effects of tariffs and non-tariff changes of preferential trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 370-382.
    6. Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava & Don Webber, 2015. "Preferential trading agreements and the gravity model in presence of zero and missing trade flows: Early results for China and India," Working Papers 2015-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    7. Elie Appelbaum & Mark Melatos, 2018. "Are Customs Unions Really So Scarce?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 391-404, December.
    8. Behrooz Gharleghi & Najla Shafighi, 2020. "Do regional trade agreements increase trade? Empirical evidence from the Asia–Pacific region," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 419-435, October.
    9. Cheong, Juyoung & Kwak, Do Won & Tang, Kam Ki, 2015. "Heterogeneous Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements: How does Partner Similarity Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 222-236.
    10. Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava & Don J Webber, 2015. "Effects of preferential trade agreements in the presence of zero trade flows: the cases of China and India," Working Papers 20151507, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    11. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2023. "Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Luigi Capoani, 2023. "Review of the gravity model: origins and critical analysis of its theoretical development," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(5), pages 1-43, May.
    13. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2014. "A Within Estimator for Three-Level Data: An Application to the WTO Effect on Trade Flows," Discussion Papers Series 501, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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