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Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US

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  • Liddle, Brantley

Abstract

Energy used in transport is a particularly important focus for environment-development studies because it is increasing in both developed and developing countries and is largely carbon-intensive. This paper examines whether a systemic, mutually causal, cointegrated relationship exists among mobility demand, gasoline price, income, and vehicle ownership using US data from 1946 to 2006. We find that those variables co-evolve in a transport system; and thus, they cannot be easily disentangled in the short-run. However, estimating a long-run relationship for motor fuel use per capita was difficult because of the efficacy of the CAFE standards to influence fleet fuel economy. The analysis shows that the fuel standards program was effective in improving the fuel economy of the US vehicle fleet and in temporarily lessening the impact on fuel use of increased mobility demand. Among the policy implications are a role for efficiency standards, a limited impact for fuel tax, and the necessity of using a number of levers simultaneously to influence transport systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Liddle, Brantley, 2009. "Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US," MPRA Paper 52080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52080
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52080/1/MPRA_paper_52080.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Samir, Saidi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Akhtar, Pervaiz, 2018. "The Long-Run Relationship between Transport Energy Consumption and Transport Infrastructure on Economic Growth in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 85037, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Mar 2018.
    2. Rentziou, Aikaterini & Gkritza, Konstantina & Souleyrette, Reginald R., 2012. "VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 487-500.
    3. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2015. "The endogeneity of OECD gasoline taxes: Evidence from pair-wise, heterogeneous panel long-run causality tests," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 31-38.
    4. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The Systemic, Long-run Relation among Gasoline Demand, Gasoline Price, Income, and Vehicle Ownership in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Modeling," MPRA Paper 52081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Belloumi, Mounir, 2017. "Investigation of the causal relationships between combustible renewables and waste consumption and CO2 emissions in the case of Tunisian maritime and rail transport," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 820-829.
    6. Liddle, Brantley & Lung, Sidney, 2015. "Revisiting energy consumption and GDP causality: Importance of a priori hypothesis testing, disaggregated data, and heterogeneous panels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 44-55.
    7. Achour, Houda & Belloumi, Mounir, 2016. "Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, transport energy consumption and economic growth in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 988-998.
    8. Melo, Patricia C. & Ramli, Ahmad Razi, 2014. "Estimating fuel demand elasticities to evaluate CO2 emissions: Panel data evidence for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 30-46.
    9. Ben Jebli, Mehdi, 2015. "The Impact of Combustible Renewables and Waste Consumption and Transport on the Environmental Degradation: The Case of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 68038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kyoung-Min Lim & Myunghwan Kim & Chang Seob Kim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2012. "Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-10, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport demand; Energy consumption and development; Cointegration; Granger-causality; CAFE program;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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