IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i6p847-d1414444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Regional Transportation Land Demand Forecasting: Empirical Study from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ke Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Li Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Jianjun Zhang

    (School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, 29, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
    Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

China is currently experiencing rapid expansion in its transportation land. To promote sustainable land use, accurately estimating transportation land demand is crucial. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for urban transportation land forecasting within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), providing support for optimizing regional land allocation. Employing methods such as meta-analysis, statistical analysis, and BP neural network analysis, this study forecasts the transportation land demand of 127 cities in the YREB. The study findings indicate that cities with high transportation land demand are mainly distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the growth rate of transportation land in the upper reaches significantly outstrips that in the middle and lower reaches, suggesting a focus shift in transportation infrastructure construction toward the upper regions. Additionally, some cities within the YREB face a mismatch between the supply and demand of transportation land, necessitating proactive adjustments to their land supply plans to achieve a balance between supply and demand. The main contribution of this study is the development of a comprehensive and adaptable framework that guides the development of future strategies for optimal land allocation by forecasting transportation land demand at a regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Wang & Li Wang & Jianjun Zhang, 2024. "Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Regional Transportation Land Demand Forecasting: Empirical Study from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:6:p:847-:d:1414444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/847/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/847/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zander, P. & Kachele, H., 1999. "Modelling multiple objectives of land use for sustainable development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 311-325, March.
    2. Myung-Jin Jun, 2005. "Forecasting Urban Land-Use Demand Using a Metropolitan Input-Output Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(7), pages 1311-1328, July.
    3. Liddle, Brantley, 2009. "Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US," MPRA Paper 52080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.
    6. William F. Laurance & Gopalasamy Reuben Clements & Sean Sloan & Christine S. O’Connell & Nathan D. Mueller & Miriam Goosem & Oscar Venter & David P. Edwards & Ben Phalan & Andrew Balmford & Rodney Van, 2014. "A global strategy for road building," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7517), pages 229-232, September.
    7. William F. Laurance & Gopalasamy Reuben Clements & Sean Sloan & Christine S. O’Connell & Nathan D. Mueller & Miriam Goosem & Oscar Venter & David P. Edwards & Ben Phalan & Andrew Balmford & Rodney Van, 2014. "Correction: Corrigendum: A global strategy for road building," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7521), pages 262-262, October.
    8. David Moher & Alessandro Liberati & Jennifer Tetzlaff & Douglas G Altman & The PRISMA Group, 2009. "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(7), pages 1-6, July.
    9. Schuckmann, Steffen W. & Gnatzy, Tobias & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1373-1387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noah Kaiser & Christina K. Barstow, 2022. "Rural Transportation Infrastructure in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Impacts, Implications, and Interventions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-48, February.
    2. Yuanyuan Zhu & John Aloysius Zinda & Qin Liu & Yukuan Wang & Bin Fu & Ming Li, 2023. "Accessibility of Primary Schools in Rural Areas and the Impact of Topography: A Case Study in Nanjiang County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Felkner, John S. & Lee, Hyun & Shaikh, Sabina & Kolata, Alan & Binford, Michael, 2022. "The interrelated impacts of credit access, market access and forest proximity on livelihood strategies in Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Andrzej Bochniak & Monika Stoma, 2021. "Estimating the Optimal Location for the Storage of Pellet Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Coenen, Johanna & Newig, Jens & Meyfroidt, Patrick, 2022. "Environmental governance of a Belt and Road project in Montenegro – National agency and external influences," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Konno, Akio & Kato, Hironori & Takeuchi, Wataru & Kiguchi, Riku, 2021. "Global evidence on productivity effects of road infrastructure incorporating spatial spillover effects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 167-182.
    7. Fatima Mustafa & Saadia Zia & Dr. Umbreen Khizar, 2021. "Impact of Environmental Concerns on Environmental Attitudes among University Employees," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 251-260, December.
    8. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    9. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    10. Sainchuluu Amarsanaa & Ariuntsetseg Lkhagva & Bolorchuluun Chogsom & Batbileg Bayaraa & Byambasuren Damdin & Bolormaa Tsooj & Javkhlan Nyamjav & Batkhishig Baival & Chantsallkham Jamsranjav, 2022. "Quantifying the Spatial Extent of Roads and Their Effects on the Vegetation in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, May.
    11. Luqi Wang & Xiaolong Xue & Zebin Zhao & Zeyu Wang, 2018. "The Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure on Sustainable Development: Emerging Trends and Challenges," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Aguiar, Sebastián & Mastrángelo, Matías E. & Texeira, Marcos & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Volante, José N. & Paruelo, José M., 2022. "Roads and land tenure mediate the effects of precipitation on forest cover change in the Argentine Dry Chaco," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Maria Kuklina & Antonina Savvinova & Viktoria Filippova & Natalia Krasnoshtanova & Viktor Bogdanov & Alla Fedorova & Dmitrii Kobylkin & Andrey Trufanov & Zolzaya Dashdorj, 2022. "Sustainability and Resilience of Indigenous Siberian Communities under the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Miner, Patrick & Smith, Barbara M. & Jani, Anant & McNeill, Geraldine & Gathorne-Hardy, Alfred, 2024. "Car harm: A global review of automobility's harm to people and the environment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Sylvie Démurger & Shi Li, 2013. "Urbanisation and Migration Externalities in China," Working Papers 1303, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    16. Ali,Rubaba & Barra,Alvaro Federico & Berg,Claudia N. & Damania,Richard & Nash,John D. & Russ,Jason Daniel & Ali,Rubaba & Barra,Alvaro Federico & Berg,Claudia N. & Damania,Richard & Nash,John D. & Russ, 2015. "Transport infrastructure and welfare : an application to Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7271, The World Bank.
    17. İlkay Unay-Gailhard & Mark A. Brennen, 2022. "How digital communications contribute to shaping the career paths of youth: a review study focused on farming as a career option," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(4), pages 1491-1508, December.
    18. Mahin Ghafari & Vali Baigi & Zahra Cheraghi & Amin Doosti-Irani, 2016. "The Prevalence of Asymptomatic Bacteriuria in Iranian Pregnant Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-10, June.
    19. Elizabeth T Cafiero-Fonseca & Andrew Stawasz & Sydney T Johnson & Reiko Sato & David E Bloom, 2017. "The full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination: A systematic review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, October.
    20. Santos Urbina & Sofía Villatoro & Jesús Salinas, 2021. "Self-Regulated Learning and Technology-Enhanced Learning Environments in Higher Education: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-12, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:6:p:847-:d:1414444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.