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Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets

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  • Bartram, Söhnke M.
  • Bodnar, Gordon M.

Abstract

This paper examines the importance of exchange rate risk in the return generating process for a large sample of non-financial firms from 37 countries. We argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns should be conditional and show evidence of a significant return premium to firm-level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change. The return premium is directly related to the size and sign of the subsequent exchange rate change, suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates themselves as a source of time-variation in currency risk premia. For the entire sample the return premium ranges from 1.2 - 3.3% per unit of currency exposure. The premium is larger for firms in emerging markets, while in developed markets it is statistically significant only for local currency depreciations. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross-sectional return variation. Moreover, we show that the impact of exchange rate risk on stock returns is predominantly a cash flow effect as opposed to a discount rate effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2006. "Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets," MPRA Paper 14018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14018
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    Cited by:

    1. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Vera Mirović, 2016. "Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(6), pages 686-705.
    2. repec:eee:ecolet:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:204-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:223-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi & Zarinah Yusof, 2015. "Are Linear and Nonlinear Exchange Rate Exposures Aggravating Agents to Corporate Bankruptcy in Nigeria? New Evidence from the “U” Test Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 212-229.
    5. Söhnke M. Bartram & Natasha Burns & Jean Helwege, 2013. "Foreign Currency Exposure and Hedging: Evidence from Foreign Acquisitions," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-20.
    6. Liu, Fang & Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina, 2015. "Orthogonalized regressors and spurious precision, with an application to currency exposures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-263.
    7. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Vera Mirović, . "Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    8. repec:eee:corfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:48-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ernesto LEON CASTRO & Ezequiel AVILÉS OCHOA & Anna Maria GIL LAFUENTE, 2016. "Exchange Rate Usd/Mxn Forecast Through Econometric Models, Time Series And Howma Operators," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 135-150.
    10. Haytem Ahmed Troug & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "The Relationship between Banking Competition and Stability in Developing Countries: The Case of Libya," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 772-779.
    11. Chou, De-Wai & Lin, Lin & Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lin, Chun Heng, 2017. "A revisit to economic exposure of U.S. multinational corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 273-287.
    12. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
    13. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    14. Lucie TOMANOVÁ, 2014. "Exchange Rate Exposure and its Determinants: Evidence on Hungarian Firms," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2).
    15. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou & Wu, Hong, 2014. "Emerging market currency exposure: Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-61.
    16. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ming-Chu & Tsai, Huey-Cherng & Liou, Chia-Ho, 2014. "Hot money effect or foreign exchange exposure? Investigation of the exchange rate exposures of Taiwanese industries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-96.
    17. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
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    19. Li, Ningzhong & Richardson, Scott & Tuna, İrem, 2014. "Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20.
    20. Krapl, Alain & O'Brien, Thomas J., 2015. "Direct versus indirect regression estimates of foreign exchange cash flow exposure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 103-112.

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    Keywords

    Exchange rate exposure; exchange rate risk; return premia; international finance;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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