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Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Kolari, James W.
  • Moorman, Ted C.
  • Sorescu, Sorin M.

Abstract

We examine the relation between the cross-section of US stock returns and foreign exchange rates during the period from 1973 to 2002. We find that stocks most sensitive to foreign exchange risk (in absolute value) have lower returns than others. This implies a non-linear, negative premium for foreign exchange risk. Sensitivity to foreign exchange generates a cross-sectional spread in stock returns unexplained by existing asset-pricing models. Consequently, we form a zero-investment factor related to foreign exchange-sensitivity and show that it can reduce mean pricing errors for exchange-sensitive portfolios. One possible explanation for our findings includes Johnson's [2004. Forecast dispersion and the cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance, 59, 1957-1978] option-theoretic model in which expected returns are decreasing in idiosyncratic cashflow volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolari, James W. & Moorman, Ted C. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2008. "Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1074-1097, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:7:p:1074-1097
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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1202-1216.
    2. Chun-Pin Hsu & Chin-Wen Huang & Wan-Jiun Chiou, 2012. "Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 447-468, November.
    3. Gomez Biscarri, Javier & Lopez Espinosa, German, 2008. "The influence of differences in accounting standards on empirical pricing models: An application to the Fama-French model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 369-388, October.
    4. Ivan Petzev & Andreas Schrimpf & Alexander F. Wagner, 2015. "Has the Pricing of Stocks Become More Global?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-48, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    5. Chung Y. Peter & Zhou Zhong-guo, 2012. "The Pricing of Time-Varying Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market: A Nonparametric Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33, January.
    6. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
    7. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    8. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    9. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    10. Serkan Yilmaz Kandir & Ahmet Erismis, 2010. "Investigating Exchange Rate Exposure of Bank Shares: Empirical Evidence From ISE," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(46), pages 49-83.
    11. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    12. Huffman, Stephen P. & Makar, Stephen D. & Beyer, Scott B., 2010. "A three-factor model investigation of foreign exchange-rate exposure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-12.
    13. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    15. Samson, Lucie, 2013. "Asset prices and exchange risk: Empirical evidence from Canada," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 35-44.
    16. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2012. "Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 766-792.
    17. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Du, Ding, 2014. "Persistent exchange-rate movements and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-53.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis & Sorros, John, 2011. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 308-328, September.
    20. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
    21. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    22. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou & Wu, Hong, 2014. "Emerging market currency exposure: Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-61.
    23. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Molyneux, Philip & Staikouras, Sotiris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Zhao, Gang, 2013. "Exchange rate risk and the equity performance of financial intermediaries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 271-282.
    24. Lestano, Lestano, 2015. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure in Indonesian Industry Sectors," MPRA Paper 64357, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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