IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v12y2011i4p321-337.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aysun, Uluc
  • Guldi, Melanie

Abstract

The typical conclusion reached when researchers examine exchange rate exposure is that only a few firms are exposed. This finding is puzzling since institutional knowledge and theory suggests a larger effect. In this paper, we compare results obtained using a linear approach with those from nonlinear and nonparametric models. Among firms that don't have a linear exposure, we find that a considerable proportion of these are exposed when nonlinear or nonparametric models are used. This exposure is most striking when a nonparametric model is used. We also find that firms' hedging activities decrease linear exposure but don't affect nonparametric exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:321-337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2011.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014111000422
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2011.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Di Iorio, Amalia & Faff, Robert, 2000. "An analysis of asymmetry in foreign currency exposure of the Australian equities market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 133-159, June.
    2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "A Reexamination of Exchange-Rate Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 396-399, May.
    3. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    4. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    5. Barclay, Richard & Fletcher, Jonathan & Marshall, Andrew, 2010. "Pricing emerging market stock returns: An update," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 49-61, March.
    6. Christos Pantzalis & Betty J Simkins & Paul A Laux, 2001. "Operational Hedges and the Foreign Exchange Exposure of U.S. Multinational Corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 32(4), pages 793-812, December.
    7. Gordon M. Bodnar & Bernard Dumas & Richard C. Marston, 2002. "Pass‐through and Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 199-231, February.
    8. Prasad, Anita Mehra & Rajan, Murli, 1995. "The role of exchange and interest risk in equity valuation: A comparative study of international stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 457-472, December.
    9. Jang-Ting Guo & Rong-Chang Wu, 1998. "Financial Liberalization and the Exchange-Rate Exposure of the Taiwanese Firms: A Nonparametric Analysis of Taiwan," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 37-61, March.
    10. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    11. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    12. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Anita Mehra Prasad, 1995. "Exchange Risk Sensitivity and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of U.S. Multinationals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), Fall.
    13. Gregory Koutmos & Anna D. Martin, 2003. "First‐ and Second‐Moment Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from U.S. Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 455-471, August.
    14. McKenzie, C R & McAleer, Michael, 1994. "On the Effects of Misspecification Errors in Models with Generated Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 441-455, November.
    15. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
    16. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
    18. Gregory Koutmos & Johan Knif, 2002. "Estimating Systematic Risk Using Time Varying Distributions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 59-73, March.
    19. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
    20. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
    21. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    22. Fatemi, Ali M. & Tavakkol, Amir & Dukas, Stephen P., 1996. "Foreign exchange exposure and the pricing of exchange rate risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 169-189.
    23. Broll, Udo & Chow, Kong Wing & Wong, Kit Pong, 2001. "Hedging and Nonlinear Risk Exposure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 281-296, April.
    24. Edward H. Chow & Wayne Y. Lee & Michael E. Solt, 1997. "The Economic Exposure Of U.S. Multinational Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 191-210, June.
    25. Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 2000. "Banks, the IMF, and the Asian crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 177-216, May.
    26. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    27. Knetter, Michael M., 1994. "Is export price adjustment asymmetric?: evaluating the market share and marketing bottlenecks hypotheses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-70, February.
    28. Li, Q. & Wang, Suojin, 1998. "A simple consistent bootstrap test for a parametric regression function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 145-165, August.
    29. Rilstone, Paul, 1991. "Nonparametric Hypothesis Testing with Parametric Rates of Convergence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 209-227, February.
    30. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2005. "Asymmetric currency exposure of US bank stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 455-472, October.
    31. Chow, Edward H. & Chen, Hung-Ling, 1998. "The determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence on Japanese firms1," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 153-174, May.
    32. Ware, Roger & Winter, Ralph, 1988. "Forward markets, currency options and the hedging of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 291-302, November.
    33. Giliberto, Michael, 1985. "Interest Rate Sensitivity in the Common Stocks of Financial Intermediaries: A Methodological Note," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 123-126, March.
    34. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    35. Parsley, David C. & Popper, Helen A., 2006. "Exchange rate pegs and foreign exchange exposure in East and South East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 992-1009, October.
    36. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    37. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
    38. Martin Glaum & Marko Brunner & Holger Himmel, 2000. "The DAX and the Dollar: The Economic Exchange Rate Exposure of German Corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 31(4), pages 715-724, December.
    39. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    40. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2007. "Asian foreign exchange risk exposure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 16-37, March.
    41. Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Emerging market exchange rate exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1349-1362, July.
    42. Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-835.
    43. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    44. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2003. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 365-383, June.
    45. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    46. Allayannis, George & Ofek, Eli, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure, hedging, and the use of foreign currency derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-296, April.
    47. Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 1994. "Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 123-139, January.
    48. Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
    49. Aline Muller & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2006. "European Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(2), pages 195-220, March.
    50. Nance, Deana R & Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Smithson, Charles W, 1993. "On the Determinants of Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 267-284, March.
    51. Priestley, Richard & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2007. "Linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1016-1037, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    2. Coutinho, João Ricardo Ribeiro & Sheng, Hsia Hua & Lora, Mayra Ivanoff, 2012. "The use of Fx derivatives and the cost of capital: Evidence of Brazilian companies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 411-423.
    3. Augustine C. Arize & Giuliana Campanelli Andreopoulos & Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & John Malindretos, 2018. "MNC Transactions Foreign Exchange Exposure: An Application," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 54-60.
    4. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    5. Ekta Sikarwar & Roopak Gupta, 2019. "Economic exposure to exchange rate risk and financial hedging," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(4), pages 965-984, August.
    6. Rossi Júnior, José Luiz, 2012. "Understanding Brazilian companies' foreign exchange exposure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 352-365.
    7. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    8. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2022. "Board attributes, hedging activities and exchange rate risk: Multi-country firm-level evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Mojisola Olugbode & Ahmed El-Masry & John Pointon, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Exposure of UK Industries Using First-order Autoregressive Exponential GARCH-in-mean (EGARCH-M) Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(4), pages 409-464, July.
    11. repec:ers:journl:v:vi:y:2018:i:1:p:54-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ekta Sikarwar & Ganesh Kumar Nidugala, 2018. "Effect of Central Bank Intervention in Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 60-95, April.
    13. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2020. "Forex interventions and exchange rate exposure: Evidence from emerging market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 69-81.
    14. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Lestano, Lestano, 2015. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure in Indonesian Industry Sectors," MPRA Paper 64357, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uluc Aysun & Melanie Guldi, 2008. "Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure," Working papers 2008-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    2. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
    3. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lestano, Lestano, 2015. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure in Indonesian Industry Sectors," MPRA Paper 64357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.
    6. Chaieb, Ines & Mazzotta, Stefano, 2013. "Unconditional and conditional exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 781-808.
    7. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Exchange rate exposure for exporting and domestic firms in central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    8. Akay, Gokhan H. & Cifter, Atilla, 2014. "Exchange rate exposure at the firm and industry levels: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 426-434.
    9. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2012. "Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 766-792.
    10. Mohammad Al‐Shboul & Sajid Anwar, 2014. "Foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Canada," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 18-29, January.
    11. Hutson, Elaine & Laing, Elaine, 2014. "Foreign exchange exposure and multinationality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-113.
    12. Sunghee Choi & Md. Abdus Salam & Ki-Dong Lee, 2019. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Exposure: The Bangladesh Case," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(2), pages 180-222, August.
    13. Ekta Sikarwar & Ganesh Kumar Nidugala, 2018. "Effect of Central Bank Intervention in Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 60-95, April.
    14. Krapl, Alain A., 2017. "Asymmetric foreign exchange cash flow exposure: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 48-72.
    15. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2020. "Forex interventions and exchange rate exposure: Evidence from emerging market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 69-81.
    17. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2007. "Modeling time variation and asymmetry in foreign exchange exposure," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 61-74, February.
    18. Belghitar, Yacine & Clark, Ephraim & Dropsy, Vincent & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2021. "The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the performance of small and medium sized enterprises: Implications for Brexit," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 399-410.
    19. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Jiang, Cao, 2009. "Does multinationality matter? Implications of operational hedging for the exchange risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1973-1982, November.
    20. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2007. "German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 344-374, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric; Exchange rate exposure; Hedging; S&P 500; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:321-337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.