Public spending and primary school enrolment: An Autoregressive distributed lag approach

This paper delves into the effects of public investment on primary school enrollment in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) over three decades, from 1990 to 2020. Autoregressive distributed lag models are employed to evaluate the long-term influence of public spending on enrollment for the whole sample and four distinct sub-samples, while also probing the potential non-linear nature of this relationship. Findings reveal that public expenditure has a significant, positive impact on enrollment across LMICs, including low-income countries (LICs), lower-middle-income countries (LMCs), and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the long run. These effects persist under non-linear model specifications. This research provides fresh empirical insights by adopting a long-term viewpoint on the nexus between educational funding and enrollment trends in LMICs. These findings highlight the critical role of sustained and efficient funding for achieving enrollment goals, a cornerstone for the advancement of sustainable development.