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Analysis of Trade Reforms, Income Inequality and Poverty Using Microsimulation Approach: The Case of the Philippines

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  • Cororaton, Caesar B.

Abstract

This paper uses a CGE mircosimulation approach to analyze the effects of tariff reduction on poverty and income inequality. The approach relaxes the representative household assumption in the traditional CGE modeling by replacing household groups with individual households. As such the approach allows one to model the link between trade reforms and individual households and their feedback to the general equilibrium of the economy. The present paper incorporates the whole 24,797 households of the 1994 Family Income and Expenditure Survey and simulates the tariff reduction from 1994 to 2000. Tariff reduction leads to higher imports and exports. Although domestic production for the local market declines, the overall production improves. These are due to substitution and scale effects of tariff reduction. Resource reallocation and factor movements favor the nonfood manufacturing sector. Agriculture wages, as well the rate of return to capital in agriculture, decline as a result of the drop in agriculture output and value added. Income of rural households in the different regions declines, while income of urban households in the various regions (including the NCR) improves. Tariff reduction results in poverty reduction in all areas not because of the improvement in household income, but because of the drop in consumer prices. Income inequality, however, worsens except in the NCR.

Suggested Citation

  • Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Analysis of Trade Reforms, Income Inequality and Poverty Using Microsimulation Approach: The Case of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2003-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2003-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Ravallion, M., 1992. "Poverty Comparisons - A Guide to Concepts and Methods," Papers 88, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
    3. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Trade Reforms, Unemployment, Household Income and Welfare: The Philippine Case," Discussion Papers DP 2003-08, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Trade Reforms, Income Distribution and Welfare: The Philippine Case," Research Paper Series RPS 2002-03, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).
    2. Luc Savard, 2004. "Un système de demandes AIDS dans un contexte EGC microsimulation pour l'analyse de pauvreté et des inégalités," Cahiers de recherche 04-10, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. U-Primo E. Rodriguez, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22694, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Tonia Kandiero, 2007. "The impact of tariff removal on poverty in Zimbabwe: A computable general equilibrium microsimulation," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 1105-1125.
    5. Ayoki, Milton, 2013. "Pursuing a pro-poor trade liberalization agenda: Regionalism, multilateralism and poverty in Uganda," MPRA Paper 83547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bouët, Antoine & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2012. "Cooperation vs. non cooperation in the multilateral trading system: the impact on poverty and inequality in developing countries," Conference papers 332287, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Analyzing the Impact of Philippine Tariff Reform on Unemployment, Distribution and Poverty Using CGE-Microsimulation Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2003-15, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Ayoki, Milton, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Trade Policies on Poverty in Uganda," MPRA Paper 78876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James B. Davies, 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2004-08, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Clements, Kenneth & Mariano, Marc Jim & Verikios, George, 2022. "Expenditure patterns, heterogeneity, and long-term structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Ayoki, Milton, 2013. "Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," MPRA Paper 80327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2008-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

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