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Landing a Permanent Contract: Do Job Interruptions and Employer Diversification Matter?

  • Yolanda Rebollo Sanz

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

A discrete-time multivariate hazard model is applied to investigate whether an individual’s employment history conditions her chances of eventually obtaining a permanent contract in the Spanish labour market. This study differentiates the incidence of lagged duration dependence from occurrence dependence and individual employment history conditions are not exclusively defined in terms of the number of temporary contracts and job interruptions experienced by the worker, but also by the diversity of her past employers. My analysis focuses on Spanish labour market entrants aged between 18 and 29 for the 1995-2006 period, and performs the estimation by three age cohort groups separately to control for heterogeneity in initial conditions. The results suggest that some workers may become “trapped” in the temporary employment bracket, since their chances of obtaining a permanent contract seem to drop after some months of accumulating several temporary contracts under the same employer between bouts of unemployment. By contrast, moving from one firm to another as a temporary worker might have a positive influence on exit rates to permanent employment. Hence, this paper highlight that it is important to take into account whether or not the worker remains in the same firm when accumulating temporary contracts to test for the stepping stone effect of temporary contracts.

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File URL: http://www.upo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ0907.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Paper provided by Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09.07.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:09.07
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  1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, 2000. "Work transitions into and out of involuntary temporary employment in a segmented market: Evidence from Spain," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(2), pages 309-325, January.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bentolila, Samuel & Bover, Olympia, 1998. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 2004. "Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 285-314, May.
  4. J.Ignacio García Pérez & Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2007. "The use of permanent contracts across Spanish regions: Do regional wage subsidies work?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2007/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  5. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones or Dead Ends?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 8, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  6. Kugler, Adriana & Jimeno, Juan F. & Hernanz, Virginia, 2002. "Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 657, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  8. Portugal, Pedro & Varejão, José, 2009. "Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," IZA Discussion Papers 4380, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  10. Güell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2003. "How Binding Are Legal Limits? Transitions from Temporary to Permanent Work in Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 782, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Edward P. Lazear & Paul Oyer, 2007. "Personnel Economics," NBER Working Papers 13480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Doiron, Denise & Gørgens, Tue, 2008. "State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 81-97, July.
  13. Edward P. Lazear, 2003. "Firm-Specific Human Capital: A Skill-Weights Approach," NBER Working Papers 9679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
  15. Colin Green & Gareth Leeves, 2004. "Casual Jobs and Internal Labour Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 658-676, 09.
  16. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
  17. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping-stones for the unemployed: The effect of temporary jobs on the duration until regular work," Working Paper Series 2004:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  18. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
  19. Carlos García-Serrano, 2004. "Temporary Employment, Working Conditions and Expected Exits from Firms ," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 18(2), pages 293-316, 06.
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