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Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks

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  • Divakaruni, Anantha
  • Zimmerman, Peter

Abstract

In April 2020, the US government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households, as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200. The rise in Bitcoin trading is highest among individuals without families and at exchanges catering to nonprofessional investors. We estimate that the EIP program has a significant but modest effect on the US dollar–Bitcoin trading pair, increasing trade volume by about 3.8 percent. Trades associated with the EIPs result in a slight rise in the price of Bitcoin of 7 basis points. Nonetheless, the increase in trading is small compared to the size of the stimulus check program, representing only 0.02 percent of all EIP dollars. We repeat our analysis for other countries with similar stimulus programs and find an increase in Bitcoin buy trades in these currencies. Our findings highlight how wealth shocks affect retail trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Divakaruni, Anantha & Zimmerman, Peter, 2021. "Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks," SocArXiv khw8a, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:khw8a
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/khw8a
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Greenwood & Toomas Laarits & Jeffrey Wurgler & Tarun Ramadorai, 2023. "Stock Market Stimulus," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(10), pages 4082-4112.
    2. Da‐Hea Kim, 2025. "Effects of Social Media‐Based Peer Opinions on the Prices of Cryptocurrency Options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(10), pages 1512-1543, October.
    3. Sila, Jan & Kocenda, Evzen & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Kukacka, Jiri, 2024. "Good vs. bad volatility in major cryptocurrencies: The dichotomy and drivers of connectedness," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Karmakar, Sayar & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Bitcoin mining activity and volatility dynamics in the power market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Kennedy, Austin, 2025. "Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Austin Kennedy, 2025. "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels," Papers 2508.06662, arXiv.org.
    7. Di Casola, Paola & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2025. "Global and local drivers of Bitcoin trading vis-à-vis fiat currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Garratt, Rodney J. & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2026. "The crypto multiplier," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Maouchi, Youcef & Charfeddine, Lanouar & El Montasser, Ghassen, 2022. "Understanding digital bubbles amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from DeFi and NFTs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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