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Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance

Author

Listed:
  • WenShwo Fang

    (Department of Economics, Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • ChunShen Lee

    (Department of Economics, Feng Chia University)

Abstract

Recent studies evaluate the effectiveness of inflation targeting through the average treatment effect and generally conclude the window-dressing view of the monetary policy for industrial countries. This paper argues that the evidence of irrelevance emerges because of a time-varying relationship (treatment effect) between the monetary policy and its effects on economic performance over time. Targeters achieve lower inflation immediately following the adoption of the policy as well as temporarily slower output growth and higher inflation and output growth variability. But these short-run effects will eventually disappear in the long run. This paper finds substantial empirical evidence for the existence of such intertemporal tradeoffs for eight industrial inflation-targeting countries. That is, targeting inflation significantly reduces inflation at the costs of a lower output growth and higher inflation and growth variability in the short-run, but no substantial effects in the medium to the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance," Working Papers 0920, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:0920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beldi Amira & Djelassi Mouldi & Mete Feridun, 2013. "Growth effects of inflation targeting revisited: empirical evidence from emerging markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 587-591, April.
    2. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    3. Gustavo José De Guimarães E Souza & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça & Joaquim Pinto De Andrade, 2014. "Output Growth And Inflation Targeting: Empirical Effects Across The World," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 057, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 65-87, May.
    5. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; time-varying treatment effects; short-run costs; long-run irrelevance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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