IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27451.html

Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Rashad Ahmed
  • Sameer Nair-Desai
  • Weining Xin
  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

We compare the importance of market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining Eurozone sovereign spreads. First, we estimate a multifactor model for changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads over January 2014 - June 2019. Then, we apply a synthetic control-type procedure to extrapolate model-implied changes in the CDS. The factor model does very well over the rest of 2019 but breaks down during the pandemic, especially during March 2020 when there is a large divergence between the actual and model-implied CDS changes. We find that the March 2020 divergence is well accounted for by COVID-specific risks and associated policies, mortality outcomes, and policy announcements, rather than traditional determinants. Daily CDS widening ceased almost immediately after the ECB announced the PEPP, but the divergence between actual and model-implied changes persisted. This points to COVID-19 Dominance: widening spreads during the pandemic has led to unconventional monetary policies that primarily aim to mitigate short-run fears, temporarily pushing away concerns over fiscal risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Yothin Jinjarak & Rashad Ahmed & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin & Joshua Aizenman, 2020. "Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020," NBER Working Papers 27451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27451
    Note: IFM PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27451.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus, 2019. "A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    6. Reinhart, C. M., 2012. "The return of financial repression," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 37-48, April.
    7. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2021. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shi-Zheng, 2022. "Do green financing and industrial structure matter for green economic recovery? Fresh empirical insights from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Chien, FengSheng & Li, Li & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Evaluating green innovation and performance of financial development: mediating concerns of environmental regulation," MPRA Paper 109671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Furceri, Davide & Ganslmeier, Michael & Yang, Naihan, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 15892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Jacek Lewkowicz & Rafał Woźniak, 2024. "Pandemic Misery Index: How to Overcome the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 925-946, April.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "European household and business expectations during COVID-19: Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?," BoF Economics Review 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    9. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin & William F. Hahn & Matthew T. Holt, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 and Price Transmission in U.S. Meat Markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 441-458, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Economides, George & Papageorgiou, Dmitris & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2020. "Macroeconomic policy lessons from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Viziniuc, Mădălin, 2021. "Winners and losers of central bank foreign exchange interventions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 748-767.
    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    4. Aizenman, J. & Jinjarak, Y. & Park, D. & Zheng, H., 2021. "Good-bye original sin, hello risk on-off, financial fragility, and crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Vácha, Lukáš & Šmolík, Filip & Baxa, Jaromír, 2019. "Comovement and disintegration of EU sovereign bond markets during the crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-556.
    6. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2020. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
    8. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    9. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    10. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    11. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    12. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2012. "On Creditor Seniority and Sovereign Bond Prices in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3944, CESifo.
    13. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Multilateral Loans and Interest Rates: Further Evidence on the Seniority Conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 169-178, April.
    15. Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Stavros E. Arvanitis & Dimitris M. Terzakis, 2017. "The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3782-3796, August.
    16. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.
    17. Niels Gilbert, 2019. "Euro area sovereign risk spillovers before and after the ECB's OMT announcement," DNB Working Papers 636, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.