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Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Donghyun Park
  • Huanhuan Zheng

Abstract

We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EMs) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey from 1970 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that (i) EM local currency bonds tend to be smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in coupon rate than foreign currency bonds; (ii) EMs are more likely to issue local-currency sovereign bonds if their currencies appreciated before the global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC); (iii) inflation-targeting monetary policy increases the likelihood of issuing local-currency debt before GFC but not after; and (iv) EMs that offer higher sovereign yields are more likely to issue local-currency bonds after GFC. Future data will allow us to test and identify structural changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.

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  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park & Huanhuan Zheng, 2022. "Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?," Papers 2206.09218, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.09218
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    Cited by:

    1. Agustin S. Benetrix & Beren Demirolmez & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "The shock absorbing role of cross-border investments: net positions versus currency composition," Trinity Economics Papers tep0421, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    3. Janus, Jakub, 2022. "Cross-border flights to safe assets in bond markets: evidence from emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 113875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Hale, Galina & Juvenal, Luciana, 2023. "External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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